Delaware at Western Kentucky
Matrix 25–34 · Western Kentucky 70.7%
Current MPR leaderLibertyNational #74 · MPR -1.3
Projected wins leaderLiberty10.09 expected wins
Average MPR-13.5Current neutral-field strength
MPR Top 250Teams ranked 1–25 nationally
Title favoriteLiberty66.1% to win the title
Conference Headlines
Latest Conference USA news and movement.
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Current Strength
Team-by-Team Outlook
Conference rank follows current MPR. Records and title chances are with results through October 25.
RankTeamMPRProj WinsSOSTitle chancesWk MPR
-1.3MPR10.09Proj wins#137SOSReach90.4%Win66.1%+1.13 Week 8 MPR
-7.2MPR6.03Proj wins#98SOSReach24.9%Win9.5%+0.08 Week 8 MPR
-9.1MPR8.41Proj wins#130SOSReach69.1%Win21.4%-0.03 Week 8 MPR
-12.0MPR3.89Proj wins#123SOSReach0.2%Win<0.1%-1.32 Week 8 MPR
-12.4MPR5.60Proj wins#132SOSReach1.4%Win0.4%-1.44 Week 8 MPR
-12.4MPR5.21Proj wins#115SOSReach2.1%Win0.5%+1.55 Week 8 MPR
-15.5MPR5.18Proj wins#106SOSReach10.2%Win2.0%-0.07 Week 8 MPR
-19.3MPR3.72Proj wins#93SOSReach0.3%Win<0.1%-1.39 Week 8 MPR
-21.7MPR5.50Proj wins#121SOSReach1.4%Win0.2%+1.33 Week 8 MPR
-24.1MPR2.36Proj wins#105SOSReach<0.1%Win<0.1%-0.15 Week 8 MPR
Snapshot: Standings and season outlook with results through October 25. Ratings after Week 8; published October 26 game forecasts retained. Method & sources →
Evidence In
Week 2 Evidence Archive
The cards below preserve the original Week 2 review. Their changes are historical; the current Move column above shows the Week 8 update.
Model UpdatedMiddle Tennessee
L 26–28 vs Marshall
MPR +1.75 · Projected Wins +0.19
Model UpdatedDelawareL 26–35 vs Vanderbilt
MPR +1.25 · Projected Wins +0.23
Model UpdatedSam HoustonL 17–23 vs Tulsa
MPR +1.25 · Projected Wins +0.06
Model UpdatedKennesaw StateL 17–31 vs Georgia State
MPR -0.75 · Projected Wins -1.09
Model UpdatedWestern KentuckyL 20–70 vs Georgia
MPR -0.75 · Projected Wins -0.21
Model UpdatedJacksonville StateL 27–29 vs Ohio
MPR +0.25 · Projected Wins -0.56
No saved forecastFlorida InternationalW 33–20 vs Buffalo
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastLibertyW 24–23 vs Gardner-Webb
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastMissouri StateW 48–14 vs Lindenwood
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastNew Mexico StateL 19–29 vs Hawaii
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
Week 9 conference games
Published October 26 forecasts with game results as they arrive.
Sam Houston at Missouri State
Matrix 23–30 · Missouri State 67.4%
Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee
Matrix 30–23 · Kennesaw State 68.0%
Jacksonville State at New Mexico State
Matrix 30–24 · Jacksonville State 65.5%
Florida International at Liberty
Matrix 22–35 · Liberty 82.0%
Week 8 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
Middle Tennessee at Florida International
Final 26–23 · Original Matrix 20–35
Frozen forecast and grades →Missouri State at Delaware
Final 38–61 · Original Matrix 25–31
Frozen forecast and grades →New Mexico State at Sam Houston
Final 30–24 · Original Matrix 29–23
Frozen forecast and grades →Liberty at Kennesaw State
Final 34–6 · Original Matrix 31–25
Frozen forecast and grades →Week 7 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
Delaware at Middle Tennessee
Final 30–33 · Original Matrix 33–24
Frozen forecast and grades →Florida International at Jacksonville State
Final 24–27 · Original Matrix 25–32
Frozen forecast and grades →Kennesaw State at Missouri State
Final 21–24 · Original Matrix 29–23
Frozen forecast and grades →Western Kentucky at Sam Houston
Final 16–3 · Original Matrix 36–21
Frozen forecast and grades →Week 6 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State
Final 27–26 · Original Matrix 27–27
Frozen forecast and grades →New Mexico State at Florida International
Final 3–22 · Original Matrix 24–29
Frozen forecast and grades →Missouri State at Western Kentucky
Final 13–34 · Original Matrix 22–33
Frozen forecast and grades →Sam Houston at Liberty
Final 3–35 · Original Matrix 17–40
Frozen forecast and grades →