TUE OCT 27 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection25–34Western Kentucky 71%
FavoriteWestern Kentucky
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.2
Model Total59.1
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Western Kentucky -8.2Market Western Kentucky -1.5Gap 6.7 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 59.1Market O/U 57.5Gap 1.6 pts
WinnerPrediction Western Kentucky · 71%
ScorePrediction 25–34
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Quarterback context Delaware’s October 26 preview says Nick Minicucci returned after missing two games through injury and threw five touchdowns against Missouri State. NWS game-window forecast: wind 0–1 mph, 60–71°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
TUE OCT 27 · 8:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection23–30Missouri State 67%
FavoriteMissouri State
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.8
Model Total53.3
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Missouri State -6.8Market Missouri State -5.5Gap 1.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.3Market O/U 50.5Gap 2.8 pts
WinnerPrediction Missouri State · 67%
ScorePrediction 23–30
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
WED OCT 28 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection30–23Kennesaw State 68%
FavoriteKennesaw State
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin7.0
Model Total52.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Kennesaw State -7.0Market Middle Tennessee -2.5Gap 9.5 pts · favorite flip
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.8Market O/U 51.5Gap 1.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Kennesaw State · 68%
ScorePrediction 30–23
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
WED OCT 28 · 8:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection30–24Jacksonville State 66%
FavoriteJacksonville State
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.0
Model Total54.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Jacksonville State -6.0Market Jacksonville State -3.5Gap 2.5 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.0Market O/U 49.5Gap 4.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Jacksonville State · 66%
ScorePrediction 30–24
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
THU OCT 29 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection30–32North Texas 57%
FavoriteNorth Texas
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.8
Model Total62.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: North Texas -2.8Market North Texas -13.5Gap 10.7 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 62.0Market O/U 77.5Gap 15.5 pts
WinnerPrediction North Texas · 57%
ScorePrediction 30–32
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
THU OCT 29 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection21–32James Madison 78%
FavoriteJames Madison
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.4
Model Total52.6
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: James Madison -11.4Market James Madison -21.0Gap 9.6 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.6Market O/U 49.5Gap 3.1 pts
WinnerPrediction James Madison · 78%
ScorePrediction 21–32
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context The Sun Belt’s October 26 initial report lists Troy quarterback Goose Crowder probable; James Madison quarterback Tanner Vibabul doubtful. NWS game-window forecast: wind 0–1 mph, 53–65°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
FRI OCT 30 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection37–15Tulane 93%
FavoriteTulane
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin22.2
Model Total52.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Tulane -22.2Market Tulane -10.0Gap 12.2 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.2Market O/U 46.5Gap 5.7 pts
WinnerPrediction Tulane · 93%
ScorePrediction 37–15
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
FRI OCT 30 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection26–27UCF 53%
FavoriteUCF
Model Win Prob53%
Model Margin1.3
Model Total53.4
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UCF -1.3Market UCF -1.5Gap 0.2 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.4Market O/U 47.5Gap 5.9 pts
WinnerPrediction UCF · 53%
ScorePrediction 26–27
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context · Wind Baylor announced October 25 that Dave Aranda was relieved of his duties. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman is interim head coach for the rest of the season. UCF’s October 26 update identifies Keyone Jenkins as the quarterback who threw for 293 yards and accounted for four touchdowns in the win over BYU. This dated performance is separate from Friday’s availability report. NWS game-window forecast: wind 10–15 mph, gusts up to 23 mph, precipitation chance up to 20%, 73–79°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
FRI OCT 30 · 10:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection29–23Kent State 64%
FavoriteKent State
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.3
Model Total52.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Kent State -5.3Market Kent State -10.0Gap 4.7 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.0Market O/U 46.5Gap 5.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Kent State · 64%
ScorePrediction 29–23
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection21–30Texas Tech 73%
FavoriteTexas Tech
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.3
Model Total51.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas Tech -9.3Market Texas Tech -3.5Gap 5.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.5Market O/U 54.5Gap 3.0 pts
WinnerPrediction Texas Tech · 73%
ScorePrediction 21–30
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection24–33Duke 71%
FavoriteDuke
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.1
Model Total57.1
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Duke -8.1Market Duke -7.0Gap 1.1 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.1Market O/U 47.5Gap 9.6 pts
WinnerPrediction Duke · 71%
ScorePrediction 24–33
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection16–27Western Michigan 76%
FavoriteWestern Michigan
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.8
Model Total42.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Western Michigan -10.8Market Western Michigan -13.5Gap 2.7 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 42.7Market O/U 44.5Gap 1.8 pts
WinnerPrediction Western Michigan · 76%
ScorePrediction 16–27
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection25–32NC State 68%
FavoriteNC State
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin7.1
Model Total56.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: NC State -7.1Market NC State -7.0Gap 0.1 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.5Market O/U 56.5Gap 0.0 pts
WinnerPrediction NC State · 68%
ScorePrediction 25–32
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context California used Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele for 37 pass attempts on October 24, after Jackson Brousseau led its previous game. That participation does not confirm the Week 9 starter or availability. NC State announced October 24 that Dave Doeren was relieved of his duties and Todd Goebbel will serve as interim head coach for the rest of the season. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5–6 mph, 70–75°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection28–24Illinois 61%
FavoriteIllinois
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.3
Model Total51.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Illinois -4.3Market Illinois -2.5Gap 1.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.7Market O/U 54.5Gap 2.8 pts
WinnerPrediction Illinois · 61%
ScorePrediction 28–24
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Illinois’ October 26 preview says Katin Houser will miss an extended period with a broken hand. Michael Clayton II led the passing in the win over Oregon. Maryland will play its first game under interim head coach Aazaar Abdul-Rahim. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, 66–70°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 27 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection42–13Notre Dame 97%
FavoriteNotre Dame
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin29.0
Model Total55.6
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Notre Dame -29.0Market Notre Dame -30.5Gap 1.5 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.6Market O/U 55.5Gap 0.1 pts
WinnerPrediction Notre Dame · 97%
ScorePrediction 42–13
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection30–21SMU 73%
FavoriteSMU
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.2
Model Total51.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: SMU -9.2Market SMU -10.0Gap 0.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.0Market O/U 58.5Gap 7.5 pts
WinnerPrediction SMU · 73%
ScorePrediction 30–21
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Syracuse’s October 26 preview says Steve Angeli will be back under center against SMU after returning in the win at North Carolina. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection21–37South Florida 85%
FavoriteSouth Florida
Model Win Prob85%
Model Margin15.6
Model Total57.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: South Florida -15.6Market South Florida -8.5Gap 7.1 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.7Market O/U 42.5Gap 15.2 pts
WinnerPrediction South Florida · 85%
ScorePrediction 21–37
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection16–25Iowa 72%
FavoriteIowa
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.8
Model Total41.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Iowa -8.8Market Iowa -3.5Gap 5.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 41.8Market O/U 36.5Gap 5.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Iowa · 72%
ScorePrediction 16–25
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context · Rain / thunderstorm chance Iowa’s October 26 notes describe an ongoing Hank Brown–Jeremy Hecklinski competition after both played against Minnesota. Hecklinski started the last two games; Brown threw 21 passes and Hecklinski 16 on October 24. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, precipitation chance up to 37%, a thunderstorm chance, 64–70°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 12:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection33–20Michigan 80%
FavoriteMichigan
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.8
Model Total52.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Michigan -12.8Market Michigan -14.0Gap 1.2 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.9Market O/U 46.5Gap 6.4 pts
WinnerPrediction Michigan · 80%
ScorePrediction 33–20
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Michigan’s October 26 notes confirm Tommy Carr made his first career start against Indiana, completing 20 of 32 passes. The reviewed notes do not announce Michigan’s starter against Rutgers. Rutgers used AJ Surace for 18 pass attempts on October 24, after Dylan Lonergan led its previous game. That participation does not confirm the Week 9 starter or availability. NWS game-window forecast: wind 0 mph, 62–68°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 12:45 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection22–31Ole Miss 72%
FavoriteOle Miss
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.7
Model Total52.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Ole Miss -8.7Market Ole Miss -13.5Gap 4.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.8Market O/U 57.5Gap 4.7 pts
WinnerPrediction Ole Miss · 72%
ScorePrediction 22–31
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Personnel context Pete Golding said October 26 that running back Kewan Lacy will miss the Auburn game after dislocating his shoulder against Texas. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, precipitation chance up to 37%, 70–75°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 1:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection26–29Old Dominion 58%
FavoriteOld Dominion
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin3.2
Model Total54.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Old Dominion -3.2Market Marshall -2.5Gap 5.7 pts · favorite flip
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.9Market O/U 45.5Gap 9.4 pts
WinnerPrediction Old Dominion · 58%
ScorePrediction 26–29
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Old Dominion used Jaxon Potter for 34 pass attempts on October 24, after Ryan Huff led its previous game. That participation does not confirm the Week 9 starter or availability. NWS game-window forecast: wind 8 mph, 69–70°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 2:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection31–27Coastal Carolina 62%
FavoriteCoastal Carolina
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.6
Model Total57.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Coastal Carolina -4.6Market Georgia State -6.5Gap 11.1 pts · favorite flip
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.8Market O/U 57.5Gap 0.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Coastal Carolina · 62%
ScorePrediction 31–27
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Georgia State’s October 24 recap identifies Ayden Pereira as its passing leader against Arkansas State, following Cameran Brown’s heavier passing workload in the previous game. A Week 9 starter is not confirmed in the reviewed sources. NWS game-window forecast: wind 10 mph, gusts up to 18 mph, 73–75°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 2:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection30–24Kansas State 67%
FavoriteKansas State
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.6
Model Total53.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Kansas State -6.6Market Kansas State -2.5Gap 4.1 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.7Market O/U 47.5Gap 6.2 pts
WinnerPrediction Kansas State · 67%
ScorePrediction 30–24
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Kansas State’s October 26 press conference calls Avery Johnson day-to-day and says Jacob Knuth is managing an ankle issue. Coach Collin Klein said he did not yet know who would take the first snap at Colorado. NWS game-window forecast: wind 2–3 mph, 59–64°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 3:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection30–26Louisiana Tech 60%
FavoriteLouisiana Tech
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.7
Model Total55.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Louisiana Tech -3.7Market Louisiana Tech -5.5Gap 1.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.8Market O/U 57.5Gap 1.7 pts
WinnerPrediction Louisiana Tech · 60%
ScorePrediction 30–26
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Rain / thunderstorm chance NWS game-window forecast: wind 10 mph, precipitation chance up to 30%, a thunderstorm chance, 79–80°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 3:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection24–31East Carolina 69%
FavoriteEast Carolina
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.4
Model Total54.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: East Carolina -7.4Market East Carolina -6.0Gap 1.4 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.9Market O/U 49.5Gap 5.4 pts
WinnerPrediction East Carolina · 69%
ScorePrediction 24–31
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context East Carolina used Mitch Griffis for 26 pass attempts on October 22, after Emory Williams led its previous game. That participation does not confirm the Week 9 starter or availability. NWS game-window forecast: wind 7–8 mph, 74–77°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 3:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection22–31Air Force 74%
FavoriteAir Force
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.5
Model Total53.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Air Force -9.5Market Air Force -2.5Gap 7.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.2Market O/U 53.5Gap 0.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Air Force · 74%
ScorePrediction 22–31
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Air Force’s October 26 notes say Evan Medders left the Wyoming game injured. Howard Fisher IV then recorded a career-high seven pass attempts. The reviewed notes do not confirm Air Force’s quarterback role against UConn. NWS game-window forecast: wind 10 mph, gusts up to 17 mph, 59–61°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 3:15 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection15–34Louisville 90%
FavoriteLouisville
Model Win Prob90%
Model Margin19.5
Model Total49.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Louisville -19.5Market Louisville -22.5Gap 3.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.2Market O/U 61.5Gap 12.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Louisville · 90%
ScorePrediction 15–34
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
SAT OCT 31 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection19–32BYU 81%
FavoriteBYU
Model Win Prob81%
Model Margin13.2
Model Total50.4
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: BYU -13.2Market BYU -16.5Gap 3.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.4Market O/U 48.5Gap 1.9 pts
WinnerPrediction BYU · 81%
ScorePrediction 19–32
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Rain / thunderstorm chance NWS game-window forecast: wind 3 mph, precipitation chance up to 60%, 57–59°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection23–28Utah State 64%
FavoriteUtah State
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.2
Model Total50.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Utah State -5.2Market Utah State -6.5Gap 1.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.8Market O/U 63.5Gap 12.7 pts
WinnerPrediction Utah State · 64%
ScorePrediction 23–28
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context · Rain / thunderstorm chance Colorado State’s October 26 update discusses both Hauss Hejny and K’saan Farrar. Hejny threw all 31 team pass attempts against San Diego State after Farrar led the previous game’s passing. NWS game-window forecast: wind 1 mph, precipitation chance up to 80%, 51–53°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection20–30Georgia 76%
FavoriteGeorgia
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.5
Model Total49.6
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Georgia -10.5Market Georgia -11.5Gap 1.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.6Market O/U 55.5Gap 5.9 pts
WinnerPrediction Georgia · 76%
ScorePrediction 20–30
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Florida’s October 26 update says Aaron Philo has returned to practice after a shoulder injury and is sharing reps with Tramell Jones Jr. Florida’s starter against Georgia will be named later in the week, according to Jon Sumrall. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection22–35Liberty 82%
FavoriteLiberty
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.7
Model Total57.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Liberty -13.7Market Liberty -14.0Gap 0.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.2Market O/U 45.5Gap 11.7 pts
WinnerPrediction Liberty · 82%
ScorePrediction 22–35
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection23–31TCU 71%
FavoriteTCU
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.4
Model Total54.1
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: TCU -8.4Market TCU -6.0Gap 2.4 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.1Market O/U 46.5Gap 7.6 pts
WinnerPrediction TCU · 71%
ScorePrediction 23–31
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection14–34Indiana 91%
FavoriteIndiana
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin20.5
Model Total48.1
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Indiana -20.5Market Indiana -20.5Gap 0.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.1Market O/U 42.5Gap 5.6 pts
WinnerPrediction Indiana · 91%
ScorePrediction 14–34
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Quarterback context Indiana’s October 26 press conference acknowledges Josh Hoover played hurt at Michigan. Curt Cignetti expects him to be better this week; that expectation is separate from a game-day availability report. NWS game-window forecast: wind 2–5 mph, 68–72°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection16–33Oregon 87%
FavoriteOregon
Model Win Prob87%
Model Margin17.1
Model Total48.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oregon -17.1Market Oregon -3.5Gap 13.6 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.9Market O/U 47.5Gap 1.4 pts
WinnerPrediction Oregon · 87%
ScorePrediction 16–33
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Dan Lanning said October 26 that Dante Moore is not expected to return this season. Jay Johnson will coordinate Oregon’s offense after Drew Mehringer’s dismissal. The reviewed announcement does not name Oregon’s Week 9 starter. NWS game-window forecast: wind 1–5 mph, precipitation chance up to 22%, 48–54°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 27 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection27–27Southern Miss 51%
FavoriteSouthern Miss
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.5
Model Total54.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Southern Miss -0.5Market Southern Miss -3.5Gap 3.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.5Market O/U 55.5Gap 1.0 pts
WinnerPrediction Southern Miss · 51%
ScorePrediction 27–27
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Rain / thunderstorm chance NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, precipitation chance up to 52%, a thunderstorm chance, 76–80°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 27 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection12–37North Dakota State 95%
FavoriteNorth Dakota State
Model Win Prob95%
Model Margin25.2
Model Total49.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: North Dakota State -25.2Market North Dakota State -25.5Gap 0.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.2Market O/U 43.5Gap 5.7 pts
WinnerPrediction North Dakota State · 95%
ScorePrediction 12–37
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 3:45 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection31–25Utah 67%
FavoriteUtah
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.5
Model Total55.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Utah -6.5Market Utah -6.5Gap 0.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.5Market O/U 56.5Gap 1.0 pts
WinnerPrediction Utah · 67%
ScorePrediction 31–25
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 3:45 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection19–27Wake Forest 70%
FavoriteWake Forest
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.7
Model Total45.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Wake Forest -7.7Market Wake Forest -12.5Gap 4.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 45.8Market O/U 49.5Gap 3.7 pts
WinnerPrediction Wake Forest · 70%
ScorePrediction 19–27
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
SAT OCT 31 · 4:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection35–17New Mexico 88%
FavoriteNew Mexico
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.3
Model Total51.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: New Mexico -17.3Market New Mexico -14.5Gap 2.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.9Market O/U 41.5Gap 10.4 pts
WinnerPrediction New Mexico · 88%
ScorePrediction 35–17
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context San Jose State used Robert McDaniel for 13 pass attempts on October 24, after Daniel Rolovich led its previous game. That participation does not confirm the Week 9 starter or availability. NWS game-window forecast: wind 1–3 mph, 60–61°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 4:15 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection15–37UCLA 93%
FavoriteUCLA
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin22.6
Model Total51.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UCLA -22.6Market UCLA -22.5Gap 0.1 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.7Market O/U 44.5Gap 7.2 pts
WinnerPrediction UCLA · 93%
ScorePrediction 15–37
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Nevada’s October 24 recap confirms Luke Duncan made his second start of the season against San José State, throwing 29 passes after AJ Bianco led the prior game. That participation does not confirm Nevada’s starter at UCLA. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, precipitation chance up to 47%, 62–64°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 4:15 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection17–35Penn State 89%
FavoritePenn State
Model Win Prob89%
Model Margin18.5
Model Total51.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Penn State -18.5Market Penn State -7.5Gap 11.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.9Market O/U 54.5Gap 2.6 pts
WinnerPrediction Penn State · 89%
ScorePrediction 17–35
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 4:15 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection21–26Oklahoma 65%
FavoriteOklahoma
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.8
Model Total47.1
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oklahoma -5.8Market Oklahoma -5.5Gap 0.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.1Market O/U 44.5Gap 2.6 pts
WinnerPrediction Oklahoma · 65%
ScorePrediction 21–26
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
SAT OCT 31 · 6:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection24–31Georgia Southern 67%
FavoriteGeorgia Southern
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.4
Model Total55.1
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Georgia Southern -6.4Market Georgia Southern -5.5Gap 0.9 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.1Market O/U 56.5Gap 1.4 pts
WinnerPrediction Georgia Southern · 67%
ScorePrediction 24–31
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection23–25Florida State 55%
FavoriteFlorida State
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin1.9
Model Total47.4
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Florida State -1.9Market Florida State -6.0Gap 4.1 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.4Market O/U 49.5Gap 2.1 pts
WinnerPrediction Florida State · 55%
ScorePrediction 23–25
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection29–20Oklahoma State 72%
FavoriteOklahoma State
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin9.0
Model Total49.3
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oklahoma State -9.0Market Oklahoma State -8.5Gap 0.5 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.3Market O/U 57.5Gap 8.2 pts
WinnerPrediction Oklahoma State · 72%
ScorePrediction 29–20
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Iowa State’s October 24 recap says Connor Moberly replaced Jaylen Raynor to start the second half at Arizona. The reviewed sources do not establish Iowa State’s starter against Oklahoma State. NWS game-window forecast: wind 3–5 mph, precipitation chance up to 37%, 61–67°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection20–25San Diego State 63%
FavoriteSan Diego State
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.1
Model Total45.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: San Diego State -5.1Market San Diego State -2.5Gap 2.6 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 45.2Market O/U 48.5Gap 3.3 pts
WinnerPrediction San Diego State · 63%
ScorePrediction 20–25
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Rain / thunderstorm chance NWS game-window forecast: wind 5–10 mph, precipitation chance up to 51%, 65–67°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection24–30Pittsburgh 65%
FavoritePittsburgh
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.7
Model Total53.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Pittsburgh -5.7Market Pittsburgh -7.5Gap 1.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.5Market O/U 54.5Gap 1.0 pts
WinnerPrediction Pittsburgh · 65%
ScorePrediction 24–30
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Quarterback context Pitt’s October 26 coaching update says Holden Geriner remains its quarterback. Geriner started at Miami and threw for 268 yards; Corey Dailey also played. NWS game-window forecast: wind 3 mph, 55–65°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection32–15Miami (FL) 88%
FavoriteMiami (FL)
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.3
Model Total46.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Miami (FL) -17.3Market Miami (FL) -14.5Gap 2.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 46.8Market O/U 52.5Gap 5.7 pts
WinnerPrediction Miami (FL) · 88%
ScorePrediction 32–15
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection17–38Texas 91%
FavoriteTexas
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin20.4
Model Total55.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas -20.4Market Texas -21.0Gap 0.6 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.2Market O/U 50.5Gap 4.7 pts
WinnerPrediction Texas · 91%
ScorePrediction 17–38
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Rain / thunderstorm chance NWS game-window forecast: wind 0 mph, a thunderstorm chance, 72–81°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection35–19Ohio State 85%
FavoriteOhio State
Model Win Prob85%
Model Margin15.5
Model Total53.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Ohio State -15.5Market Ohio State -6.5Gap 9.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.9Market O/U 51.5Gap 2.4 pts
WinnerPrediction Ohio State · 85%
ScorePrediction 35–19
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
SAT OCT 31 · 7:45 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection32–25Missouri 69%
FavoriteMissouri
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.4
Model Total56.6
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Missouri -7.4Market Missouri -10.0Gap 2.6 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.6Market O/U 49.5Gap 7.1 pts
WinnerPrediction Missouri · 69%
ScorePrediction 32–25
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Rain / thunderstorm chance NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, precipitation chance up to 50%, 63–69°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)
SAT OCT 31 · 8:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection27–29Memphis 56%
FavoriteMemphis
Model Win Prob56%
Model Margin2.3
Model Total55.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Memphis -2.3Market Memphis -6.0Gap 3.7 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.7Market O/U 59.5Gap 3.8 pts
WinnerPrediction Memphis · 56%
ScorePrediction 27–29
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
SAT OCT 31 · 8:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection23–27Nebraska 61%
FavoriteNebraska
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.1
Model Total49.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Nebraska -4.1Market Nebraska -7.5Gap 3.4 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.8Market O/U 49.5Gap 0.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Nebraska · 61%
ScorePrediction 23–27
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
SAT OCT 31 · 10:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection23–40Boise State 88%
FavoriteBoise State
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.8
Model Total63.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Boise State -17.8Market Boise State -11.5Gap 6.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 63.0Market O/U 63.5Gap 0.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Boise State · 88%
ScorePrediction 23–40
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 10:30 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection12–41UNLV 97%
FavoriteUNLV
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin28.7
Model Total52.6
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UNLV -28.7Market UNLV -23.5Gap 5.2 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.6Market O/U 53.5Gap 0.9 pts
WinnerPrediction UNLV · 97%
ScorePrediction 12–41
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
SAT OCT 31 · 11:00 PM EDTWEEK 9
Matrix Projection21–24Fresno State 57%
FavoriteFresno State
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.5
Model Total44.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Fresno State -2.5Market Oregon State -5.5Gap 8.0 pts · favorite flip
TotalPrediction Matrix: 44.9Market O/U 58.5Gap 13.6 pts
WinnerPrediction Fresno State · 57%
ScorePrediction 21–24
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 26 · lines can move
Valley Children's Stadium
TUE OCT 20 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final26–23Pregame Matrix 20–35
FavoriteFlorida International
Model Win Prob84%
Model Margin14.6
Model Total54.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Florida International -14.6
Market Florida International -10.0
Gap 4.6 ptsResult LOSS · Florida International -10.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.9
Market O/U 45.5
Gap 9.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 45.5
Winner
Prediction Florida International · 84%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 20–35Final 26–23 · 5.9 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
Wind NWS game-window forecast: wind 12–13 mph, gusts up to 20 mph, 76–80°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 19 (ET)
TUE OCT 20 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final38–61Pregame Matrix 25–31
FavoriteDelaware
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.6
Model Total55.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Delaware -6.6
Market Delaware -3.0
Gap 3.6 ptsResult WIN · Delaware -3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.6
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 3.1 ptsResult WIN · OVER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Delaware · 67%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 25–31Final 38–61 · 43.4 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
Quarterback context Delaware’s October 17 preview says Nick Minicucci missed the previous two games; Tyler Bell threw for 306 yards in his first start. Missouri State’s Henry Belin IV threw for 300 yards in his first Bears start on October 14. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5–10 mph, 53–62°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 19 (ET)
TUE OCT 20 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final13–20Pregame Matrix 29–33
FavoriteMarshall
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.8
Model Total62.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Marshall -3.8
Market South Alabama -3.0
Gap 6.8 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · Marshall +3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 62.1
Market O/U 64.5
Gap 2.4 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 64.5
Winner
Prediction Marshall · 60%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 29–33Final 13–20 · 29.1 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
WED OCT 21 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final30–24Pregame Matrix 29–23
FavoriteNew Mexico State
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.8
Model Total52.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: New Mexico State -5.8
Market New Mexico State -3.0
Gap 2.8 ptsResult WIN · New Mexico State -3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.5
Market O/U 45.5
Gap 7.0 ptsResult WIN · OVER 45.5
Winner
Prediction New Mexico State · 65%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 29–23Final 30–24 · 1.5 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
THU OCT 22 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final31–34Pregame Matrix 32–21
FavoriteJames Madison
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.2
Model Total53.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: James Madison -11.2
Market James Madison -10.5
Gap 0.7 ptsResult LOSS · James Madison -10.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.5
Market O/U 56.5
Gap 3.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 56.5
Winner
Prediction James Madison · 77%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 32–21Final 31–34 · 11.5 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
Quarterback availability The Sun Belt’s October 19 initial report lists App State quarterback Malachi Singleton as questionable for James Madison’s October 22 visit. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5–6 mph, 49–55°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 19, 11:49 PM ET
THU OCT 22 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final34–6Pregame Matrix 31–25
FavoriteLiberty
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.0
Model Total55.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Liberty -6.0
Market Liberty -10.5
Gap 4.5 ptsResult LOSS · Kennesaw State +10.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.0
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 5.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Liberty · 66%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 31–25Final 34–6 · 15.0 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium
THU OCT 22 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final34–41Pregame Matrix 25–30
FavoriteMemphis
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.0
Model Total54.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Memphis -5.0
Market Memphis -10.5
Gap 5.5 ptsResult WIN · East Carolina +10.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.8
Market O/U 54.5
Gap 0.3 ptsResult WIN · OVER 54.5
Winner
Prediction Memphis · 63%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 25–30Final 34–41 · 20.2 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
FRI OCT 23 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final19–16Pregame Matrix 27–26
FavoriteDuke
Model Win Prob53%
Model Margin1.0
Model Total53.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Duke -1.0
Market Virginia -1.5
Gap 2.5 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · Duke +1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.7
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 6.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Duke · 53%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 27–26Final 19–16 · 18.7 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
FRI OCT 23 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final16–35Pregame Matrix 15–36
FavoriteUConn
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin21.0
Model Total51.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: UConn -21.0
Market UConn -14.5
Gap 6.5 ptsResult WIN · UConn -14.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 51.4
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 1.9 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction UConn · 92%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 15–36Final 16–35 · 0.4 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
Quarterback context Logan Inagawa made his first UMass start on October 17 while William “Pop” Watson III and Aedan McCarthy missed that game with injuries. Inagawa passed for 168 yards and rushed for 66. NWS game-window forecast: wind 3–5 mph, 43–49°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 19 (ET)
FRI OCT 23 · 8:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final38–35Pregame Matrix 28–26
FavoriteArmy
Model Win Prob56%
Model Margin2.1
Model Total53.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Army -2.1
Market Tulsa -1.5
Gap 3.6 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · Army +1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.7
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 0.2 ptsResult WIN · OVER 53.5
Winner
Prediction Army · 56%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 28–26Final 38–35 · 19.3 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
FRI OCT 23 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final14–28Pregame Matrix 26–20
FavoriteAir Force
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.4
Model Total46.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Air Force -6.4
Market Air Force -4.5
Gap 1.9 ptsResult LOSS · Air Force -4.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 46.3
Market O/U 44.5
Gap 1.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 44.5
Winner
Prediction Air Force · 67%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 26–20Final 14–28 · 4.3 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
Wind NWS game-window forecast: wind 15–20 mph, gusts up to 26 mph, 43–48°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 19 (ET)
FRI OCT 23 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final28–31Pregame Matrix 31–21
FavoriteNC State
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.8
Model Total51.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: NC State -9.8
Market NC State -7.0
Gap 2.8 ptsResult LOSS · NC State -7.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 51.8
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 3.7 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 55.5
Winner
Prediction NC State · 74%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 31–21Final 28–31 · 7.2 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 19 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final20–59Pregame Matrix 22–33
FavoriteSMU
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin10.9
Model Total55.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: SMU -10.9
Market SMU -18.5
Gap 7.6 ptsResult LOSS · California +18.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.1
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 0.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 55.5
Winner
Prediction SMU · 77%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 22–33Final 20–59 · 23.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context Cal used Jackson Brousseau and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele in the October 17 game. Friday’s ACC report lists both Available; the report does not identify the starter. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5–10 mph, gusts up to 17 mph, 74–84°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final13–6Pregame Matrix 29–20
FavoriteIndiana
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.3
Model Total48.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Indiana -8.3
Market Indiana -7.5
Gap 0.8 ptsResult LOSS · Indiana -7.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.9
Market O/U 42.5
Gap 6.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 42.5
Winner
Prediction Indiana · 71%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 29–20Final 13–6 · 29.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context ESPN reported October 23 that Tommy Carr will make his first Michigan start against Indiana. Friday’s Big Ten report lists Carr and Bryce Underwood Available. NWS game-window forecast: wind 3 mph, 59–65°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final38–17Pregame Matrix 27–20
FavoriteLSU
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.7
Model Total46.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: LSU -7.7
Market LSU -7.0
Gap 0.7 ptsResult WIN · LSU -7.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 46.7
Market O/U 51.5
Gap 4.8 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 51.5
Winner
Prediction LSU · 70%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 27–20Final 38–17 · 8.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context Friday’s SEC report lists LSU’s Sam Leavitt Available after he left the October 17 game injured. NWS game-window forecast: wind 10 mph, gusts up to 18 mph, 66–71°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final23–52Pregame Matrix 16–36
FavoriteMiami (FL)
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin20.5
Model Total51.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Miami (FL) -20.5
Market Miami (FL) -20.5
Gap 0.0 ptsResult WIN · Miami (FL) -20.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 51.6
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 3.1 ptsResult WIN · OVER 48.5
Winner
Prediction Miami (FL) · 91%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 16–36Final 23–52 · 23.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context · Wind Friday’s ACC report lists Pitt’s Mason Heintschel Out and Corey Dailey Available. Dailey made his first Pitt start on October 17. NWS game-window forecast: wind 14–15 mph, gusts up to 26 mph, 81–82°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final49–51Pregame Matrix 22–34
FavoriteFlorida Atlantic
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.2
Model Total56.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Florida Atlantic -11.2
Market Florida Atlantic -8.5
Gap 2.7 ptsResult LOSS · Florida Atlantic -8.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.0
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 2.5 ptsResult WIN · OVER 53.5
Winner
Prediction Florida Atlantic · 77%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 22–34Final 49–51 · 44.0 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
Wind NWS game-window forecast: wind 15–17 mph, gusts up to 28 mph, 81°F. A coastal flood advisory covers the forecast area; stadium impacts are not established. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final14–42Pregame Matrix 21–30
FavoriteNorthwestern
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.6
Model Total51.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Northwestern -8.6
Market Northwestern -15.5
Gap 6.9 ptsResult LOSS · Rutgers +15.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 51.5
Market O/U 58.5
Gap 7.0 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 58.5
Winner
Prediction Northwestern · 72%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 21–30Final 14–42 · 4.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–37Pregame Matrix 35–19
FavoriteTexas Tech
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin15.9
Model Total53.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Texas Tech -15.9
Market Texas Tech -11.5
Gap 4.4 ptsResult LOSS · Texas Tech -11.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.2
Market O/U 56.5
Gap 3.3 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 56.5
Winner
Prediction Texas Tech · 86%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 35–19Final 24–37 · 7.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–20Pregame Matrix 20–33
FavoriteTCU
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.5
Model Total52.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: TCU -13.5
Market TCU -10.5
Gap 3.0 ptsResult LOSS · TCU -10.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.6
Market O/U 57.5
Gap 4.9 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 57.5
Winner
Prediction TCU · 82%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 20–33Final 24–20 · 8.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final38–45Pregame Matrix 23–21
FavoriteWestern Michigan
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.5
Model Total44.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Western Michigan -1.5
Market Toledo -3.0
Gap 4.5 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Western Michigan +3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 44.0
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 3.5 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Western Michigan · 54%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 23–21Final 38–45 · 39.0 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final20–35Pregame Matrix 23–25
FavoriteKent State
Model Win Prob56%
Model Margin2.1
Model Total47.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Kent State -2.1
Market Kent State -3.0
Gap 0.9 ptsResult LOSS · Akron +3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 47.9
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Kent State · 56%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 23–25Final 20–35 · 7.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
SAT OCT 24 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–25Pregame Matrix 29–29
FavoriteBaylor
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.5
Model Total58.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Baylor -0.5
Market Baylor -1.5
Gap 1.0 ptsResult WIN · Kansas +1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 58.3
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 4.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 53.5
Winner
Prediction Baylor · 51%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 29–29Final 24–25 · 9.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
SAT OCT 24 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final28–27Pregame Matrix 25–20
FavoriteMiami (OH)
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.2
Model Total44.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Miami (OH) -5.2
Market Miami (OH) -3.5
Gap 1.7 ptsResult LOSS · Miami (OH) -3.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 44.6
Market O/U 40.5
Gap 4.1 ptsResult WIN · OVER 40.5
Winner
Prediction Miami (OH) · 63%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 25–20Final 28–27 · 10.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 3:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final10–21Pregame Matrix 35–19
FavoriteOregon
Model Win Prob85%
Model Margin15.5
Model Total54.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Oregon -15.5
Market Oregon -10.0
Gap 5.5 ptsResult LOSS · Oregon -10.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.3
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 4.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Oregon · 85%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 35–19Final 10–21 · 23.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context Friday’s Big Ten report lists Oregon’s Dante Moore and Illinois’ Katin Houser Out. Dylan Raiola, Brock Thomas, Michael Clayton II and Carson Boyd are listed Available; availability does not establish who will start. NWS game-window forecast: wind 3–5 mph, 72–73°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final31–39Pregame Matrix 30–19
FavoriteBYU
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.4
Model Total48.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: BYU -11.4
Market BYU -7.5
Gap 3.9 ptsResult LOSS · BYU -7.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.5
Market O/U 43.5
Gap 5.0 ptsResult WIN · OVER 43.5
Winner
Prediction BYU · 78%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 30–19Final 31–39 · 21.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context · Wind · Rain / thunderstorm chance Friday’s Big 12 report lists UCF quarterback Alonza Barnett III Questionable and Keyone Jenkins Available. Jenkins led UCF’s passing in its most recent completed game. NWS game-window forecast: wind 15 mph, gusts up to 31 mph, precipitation chance up to 28%, a thunderstorm chance, 73–80°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final49–27Pregame Matrix 23–30
FavoriteGeorgia Tech
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.4
Model Total52.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Georgia Tech -6.4
Market Georgia Tech -6.0
Gap 0.4 ptsResult LOSS · Georgia Tech -6.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.8
Market O/U 50.5
Gap 2.3 ptsResult WIN · OVER 50.5
Winner
Prediction Georgia Tech · 67%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 23–30Final 49–27 · 23.2 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–31Pregame Matrix 19–23
FavoriteBuffalo
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.7
Model Total42.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Buffalo -3.7
Market Buffalo -3.0
Gap 0.7 ptsResult WIN · Buffalo -3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 42.3
Market O/U 44.5
Gap 2.2 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 44.5
Winner
Prediction Buffalo · 60%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 19–23Final 24–31 · 12.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final56–21Pregame Matrix 30–20
FavoriteHawaii
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.5
Model Total50.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Hawaii -10.5
Market Hawaii -4.0
Gap 6.5 ptsResult WIN · Hawaii -4.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 50.2
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 2.7 ptsResult WIN · OVER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Hawaii · 76%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 30–20Final 56–21 · 26.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final10–13Pregame Matrix 26–20
FavoriteIowa
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.5
Model Total45.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Iowa -5.5
Market Iowa -7.5
Gap 2.0 ptsResult WIN · Minnesota +7.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 45.7
Market O/U 40.5
Gap 5.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 40.5
Winner
Prediction Iowa · 64%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 26–20Final 10–13 · 22.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Wind · Rain / thunderstorm chance NWS game-window forecast: wind 10–15 mph, gusts up to 23 mph, precipitation chance up to 52%, 68–76°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final10–28Pregame Matrix 21–33
FavoriteUCLA
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.8
Model Total54.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: UCLA -12.8
Market UCLA -15.5
Gap 2.7 ptsResult LOSS · Michigan State +15.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.2
Market O/U 43.5
Gap 10.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 43.5
Winner
Prediction UCLA · 80%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 21–33Final 10–28 · 16.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context Friday’s Big Ten report lists Michigan State’s Alessio Milivojevic Questionable and Cam Fancher Out; UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava is Out. Ty Dieffenbach is listed Available. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, 68–76°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final49–39Pregame Matrix 24–34
FavoriteNavy
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.7
Model Total58.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Navy -9.7
Market North Texas -3.0
Gap 12.7 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Navy +3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 58.0
Market O/U 62.5
Gap 4.5 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 62.5
Winner
Prediction Navy · 74%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 24–34Final 49–39 · 30.0 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
SAT OCT 24 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final23–15Pregame Matrix 30–22
FavoriteOklahoma
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.3
Model Total52.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Oklahoma -8.3
Market Oklahoma -2.5
Gap 5.8 ptsResult WIN · Oklahoma -2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.4
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 4.9 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Oklahoma · 71%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 30–22Final 23–15 · 14.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context Friday’s SEC report lists Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor Questionable and Parker “Billy” Puckett Available. Puckett started the October 17 game while Taylor missed it. NWS game-window forecast: wind 0–5 mph, 73–78°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final17–34Pregame Matrix 23–28
FavoriteBall State
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.8
Model Total50.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Ball State -4.8
Market Ball State -14.5
Gap 9.7 ptsResult LOSS · Sacramento State +14.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 50.6
Market O/U 51.5
Gap 0.9 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 51.5
Winner
Prediction Ball State · 62%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 23–28Final 17–34 · 0.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–27Pregame Matrix 29–26
FavoriteTennessee
Model Win Prob56%
Model Margin2.3
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Tennessee -2.3
Market South Carolina -2.5
Gap 4.8 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Tennessee +2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.3
Market O/U 50.5
Gap 4.8 ptsResult WIN · OVER 50.5
Winner
Prediction Tennessee · 56%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 29–26Final 24–27 · 4.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final20–31Pregame Matrix 22–27
FavoriteAlabama
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin4.9
Model Total49.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Alabama -4.9
Market Alabama -13.5
Gap 8.6 ptsResult WIN · Texas A&M +13.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.7
Market O/U 50.5
Gap 0.8 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 50.5
Winner
Prediction Alabama · 63%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 22–27Final 20–31 · 1.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 3:45 PM EDTFINAL
Final17–28Pregame Matrix 28–25
FavoriteKansas State
Model Win Prob56%
Model Margin2.1
Model Total53.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Kansas State -2.1
Market Kansas State -1.5
Gap 0.6 ptsResult LOSS · Kansas State -1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.0
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 0.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Kansas State · 56%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 28–25Final 17–28 · 8.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context ESPN reported October 23 that Kenny Dillingham confirmed Mikey Keene over Cutter Boley for Arizona State. Friday’s Big 12 report lists Kansas State’s Avery Johnson Doubtful and Blake Barnett Questionable. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, 75–77°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final20–24Pregame Matrix 17–27
FavoriteOhio
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.1
Model Total43.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Ohio -9.1
Market Ohio -10.0
Gap 0.9 ptsResult WIN · Eastern Michigan +10.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 43.9
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 4.6 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 48.5
Winner
Prediction Ohio · 73%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 17–27Final 20–24 · 0.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final21–14Pregame Matrix 16–37
FavoriteTroy
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin21.1
Model Total52.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Troy -21.1
Market Troy -11.5
Gap 9.6 ptsResult LOSS · Troy -11.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.8
Market O/U 50.5
Gap 2.3 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 50.5
Winner
Prediction Troy · 92%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 16–37Final 21–14 · 17.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Quarterback context The Sun Belt’s latest report, updated October 21 (ET), lists Troy quarterback Goose Crowder Questionable. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5–10 mph, gusts up to 17 mph, 67–73°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 5:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final31–35Pregame Matrix 37–22
FavoriteLouisiana
Model Win Prob84%
Model Margin15.2
Model Total58.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Louisiana -15.2
Market Louisiana -10.0
Gap 5.2 ptsResult LOSS · Louisiana -10.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 58.5
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 6.0 ptsResult WIN · OVER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Louisiana · 84%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 37–22Final 31–35 · 7.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 5:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final0–26Pregame Matrix 22–26
FavoriteLouisiana Tech
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.1
Model Total48.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Louisiana Tech -4.1
Market Louisiana Tech -13.5
Gap 9.4 ptsResult LOSS · Old Dominion +13.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.7
Market O/U 45.5
Gap 3.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 45.5
Winner
Prediction Louisiana Tech · 61%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 22–26Final 0–26 · 22.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context The Sun Belt’s latest report, updated October 21 (ET), lists Old Dominion’s Quinn Henicle Out and Ryan Huff Questionable. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, 75–85°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 5:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final13–28Pregame Matrix 23–27
FavoriteNevada
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.4
Model Total49.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Nevada -4.4
Market Nevada -6.5
Gap 2.1 ptsResult LOSS · San Jose State +6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.9
Market O/U 46.5
Gap 3.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 46.5
Winner
Prediction Nevada · 61%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 23–27Final 13–28 · 8.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context San José State’s Daniel Rolovich made his first career start at UTEP on October 17. Nevada’s AJ Bianco made his first start of the season that day at North Dakota State. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, 58–61°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final31–10Pregame Matrix 31–17
FavoriteBoise State
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.1
Model Total48.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Boise State -14.1
Market Boise State -14.5
Gap 0.4 ptsResult LOSS · Washington State +14.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.5
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 5.0 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 53.5
Winner
Prediction Boise State · 83%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 31–17Final 31–10 · 7.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context Owen Eshelman threw for 289 yards and rushed for 136 against Oregon State on October 17. That was his first Washington State start, according to the game report. NWS game-window forecast: wind 2–3 mph, 48–54°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 6:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final49–56Pregame Matrix 25–22
FavoriteSan Diego State
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin3.1
Model Total46.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: San Diego State -3.1
Market San Diego State -1.5
Gap 1.6 ptsResult LOSS · San Diego State -1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 46.8
Market O/U 60.5
Gap 13.7 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 60.5
Winner
Prediction San Diego State · 58%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 25–22Final 49–56 · 58.2 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context The Pac-12’s Friday report lists San Diego State’s Jayden Denegal Questionable and Brady Campbell Out. Denegal left the October 17 game injured, with Stone Saunders replacing him. NWS game-window forecast: wind 7–10 mph, gusts up to 16 mph, 47–55°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–57Pregame Matrix 20–32
FavoriteOklahoma State
Model Win Prob79%
Model Margin12.1
Model Total52.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Oklahoma State -12.1
Market Oklahoma State -13.5
Gap 1.4 ptsResult LOSS · Colorado +13.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.4
Market O/U 56.5
Gap 4.1 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 56.5
Winner
Prediction Oklahoma State · 79%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 20–32Final 24–57 · 28.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final32–38Pregame Matrix 22–36
FavoriteArkansas State
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.6
Model Total58.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Arkansas State -13.6
Market Georgia State -2.5
Gap 16.1 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · Arkansas State +2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 58.3
Market O/U 58.5
Gap 0.2 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 58.5
Winner
Prediction Arkansas State · 82%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 22–36Final 32–38 · 11.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final20–16Pregame Matrix 22–27
FavoriteClemson
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.5
Model Total48.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Clemson -4.5
Market Clemson -2.5
Gap 2.0 ptsResult LOSS · Clemson -2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.8
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 0.7 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Clemson · 62%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 22–27Final 20–16 · 12.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
SAT OCT 24 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final3–39Pregame Matrix 18–31
FavoriteArizona
Model Win Prob81%
Model Margin13.2
Model Total48.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Arizona -13.2
Market Arizona -10.5
Gap 2.7 ptsResult WIN · Arizona -10.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.3
Market O/U 51.5
Gap 3.2 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 51.5
Winner
Prediction Arizona · 81%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 18–31Final 3–39 · 6.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final27–34Pregame Matrix 23–31
FavoriteTexas
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.4
Model Total54.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Texas -7.4
Market Texas -3.0
Gap 4.4 ptsResult WIN · Texas -3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.3
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 0.8 ptsResult WIN · OVER 53.5
Winner
Prediction Texas · 69%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 23–31Final 27–34 · 6.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Quarterback context Steve Sarkisian said October 19 that Arch Manning remains Texas’ starter. Friday’s SEC report lists Manning and KJ Lacey Jr. Available. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5–10 mph, gusts up to 20 mph, 75–86°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final31–30Pregame Matrix 19–27
FavoriteNorth Carolina
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.5
Model Total46.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: North Carolina -8.5
Market North Carolina -8.5
Gap 0.0 ptsResult WIN · Syracuse +8.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 46.5
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 1.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 47.5
Winner
Prediction North Carolina · 71%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 19–27Final 31–30 · 14.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context Friday’s ACC report lists Syracuse’s Steve Angeli Probable, with Malachi Nelson and Amari Odom Out. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5–7 mph, 50–58°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final7–24Pregame Matrix 28–19
FavoriteUSC
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.0
Model Total48.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: USC -9.0
Market USC -3.0
Gap 6.0 ptsResult LOSS · USC -3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.0
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 1.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 49.5
Winner
Prediction USC · 73%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 28–19Final 7–24 · 17.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final17–20Pregame Matrix 29–35
FavoriteTexas State
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.5
Model Total63.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Texas State -5.5
Market Texas State -13.5
Gap 8.0 ptsResult WIN · Utah State +13.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 63.8
Market O/U 60.5
Gap 3.3 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 60.5
Winner
Prediction Texas State · 64%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 29–35Final 17–20 · 26.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final17–34Pregame Matrix 24–29
FavoriteKentucky
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.0
Model Total52.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Kentucky -5.0
Market Kentucky -10.5
Gap 5.5 ptsResult LOSS · Vanderbilt +10.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.0
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 0.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Kentucky · 63%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 24–29Final 17–34 · 1.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
SAT OCT 24 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final42–19Pregame Matrix 29–28
FavoriteUTSA
Model Win Prob52%
Model Margin0.8
Model Total56.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: UTSA -0.8
Market UTSA -3.0
Gap 2.2 ptsResult LOSS · Tulane +3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.9
Market O/U 51.5
Gap 5.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 51.5
Winner
Prediction UTSA · 52%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 29–28Final 42–19 · 4.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Quarterback context Trace Johnson made his first collegiate start for Tulane against Memphis on October 16, throwing for 165 yards. His official player record lists that game as his first start. NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, 64–69°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 10:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final16–21Pregame Matrix 21–30
FavoriteNew Mexico
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.2
Model Total50.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: New Mexico -9.2
Market New Mexico -4.5
Gap 4.7 ptsResult WIN · New Mexico -4.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 50.6
Market O/U 40.5
Gap 10.1 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 40.5
Winner
Prediction New Mexico · 73%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 21–30Final 16–21 · 13.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
Rain / thunderstorm chance NWS game-window forecast: wind 5–10 mph, precipitation chance up to 76%, a thunderstorm chance, 51–55°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗ Context updated October 23 (ET)
SAT OCT 24 · 10:15 PM EDTFINAL
Final13–21Pregame Matrix 25–30
FavoriteUtah
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.4
Model Total55.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Utah -4.4
Market Utah -6.5
Gap 2.1 ptsResult LOSS · Houston +6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.1
Market O/U 57.5
Gap 2.4 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 57.5
Winner
Prediction Utah · 61%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 25–30Final 13–21 · 21.1 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 23 · lines can move
TUE OCT 13 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final30–33Pregame Matrix 33–24
FavoriteDelaware
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.1
Model Total56.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Delaware -9.1
Market Delaware -1.5
Gap 7.6 ptsResult LOSS · Delaware -1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.6
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 8.1 ptsResult WIN · OVER 48.5
Winner
Prediction Delaware · 73%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 33–24Final 30–33 · 6.4 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Quarterback availability Quarterback context: EJ Archield Jr. made his first start after Nick Minnicucci’s injury. Starter role and availability add uncertainty. Recorded game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context recorded October 13
TUE OCT 13 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–27Pregame Matrix 25–32
FavoriteJacksonville State
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.5
Model Total56.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Jacksonville State -6.5
Market Jacksonville State -3.0
Gap 3.5 ptsResult PUSH · Jacksonville State -3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.9
Market O/U 43.5
Gap 13.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 43.5
Winner
Prediction Jacksonville State · 67%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 25–32Final 24–27 · 5.9 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
WED OCT 14 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final21–24Pregame Matrix 29–23
FavoriteKennesaw State
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.1
Model Total51.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Kennesaw State -6.1
Market Kennesaw State -3.0
Gap 3.1 ptsResult LOSS · Kennesaw State -3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 51.7
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 0.8 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Kennesaw State · 66%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 29–23Final 21–24 · 6.7 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
WED OCT 14 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final16–3Pregame Matrix 36–21
FavoriteWestern Kentucky
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.4
Model Total56.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Western Kentucky -14.4
Market Western Kentucky -1.5
Gap 12.9 ptsResult WIN · Western Kentucky -1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.8
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 3.3 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 53.5
Winner
Prediction Western Kentucky · 83%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 36–21Final 16–3 · 37.8 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Quarterback availability Quarterback context: Week 6 QB usage changed to Brock Glenn. Starter role can affect the game outlook. Recorded game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context recorded October 13
THU OCT 15 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final17–30Pregame Matrix 33–22
FavoriteEast Carolina
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.8
Model Total54.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: East Carolina -10.8
Market East Carolina -4.5
Gap 6.3 ptsResult LOSS · East Carolina -4.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.7
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 7.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 47.5
Winner
Prediction East Carolina · 76%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 33–22Final 17–30 · 7.7 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
THU OCT 15 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final23–15Pregame Matrix 24–26
FavoriteOld Dominion
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin1.8
Model Total49.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Old Dominion -1.8
Market Georgia Southern -3.5
Gap 5.3 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Old Dominion +3.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.7
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 2.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Old Dominion · 55%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 24–26Final 23–15 · 11.7 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
THU OCT 15 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final27–66Pregame Matrix 27–33
FavoriteTexas State
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.6
Model Total59.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Texas State -6.6
Market Texas State -14.0
Gap 7.4 ptsResult LOSS · Colorado State +14.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 59.9
Market O/U 70.5
Gap 10.6 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 70.5
Winner
Prediction Texas State · 67%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 27–33Final 27–66 · 33.1 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Quarterback availability Colorado State: Hauss Hejny was listed Questionable in the saved availability record. The replacement quarterback role can affect the game outlook. Recorded game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context recorded October 13
FRI OCT 16 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final17–31Pregame Matrix 29–26
FavoriteMemphis
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.6
Model Total54.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Memphis -2.6
Market Memphis -7.0
Gap 4.4 ptsResult WIN · Tulane +7.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.8
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 0.7 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
Winner
Prediction Memphis · 57%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 29–26Final 17–31 · 6.8 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Wind NWS game-window forecast: 72–82°F; wind 15–20 mph, gusts up to 36 mph; precipitation chance up to 24%. An NWS Wind Advisory covers the forecast area during the game window. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
FRI OCT 16 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final35–32Pregame Matrix 27–28
FavoriteCoastal Carolina
Model Win Prob52%
Model Margin0.8
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Coastal Carolina -0.8
Market Appalachian State -1.5
Gap 2.3 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Coastal Carolina +1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.3
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 5.8 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Coastal Carolina · 52%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 27–28Final 35–32 · 11.7 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Quarterback availability App State lists quarterback Malachi Singleton as a game-time decision for Friday’s Coastal Carolina game in its gameday report. NWS game-window forecast: 73–76°F; wind 7–9 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
FRI OCT 16 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final38–26Pregame Matrix 30–21
FavoriteWashington
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.3
Model Total50.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Washington -9.3
Market Purdue -3.5
Gap 12.8 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · Washington +3.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 50.9
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 1.6 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Washington · 73%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 30–21Final 38–26 · 13.1 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Quarterback availability · Wind · Showers Washington lists Demond Williams Jr. as a game-time decision and Elijah Brown as available in its 6 PM ET gameday report. NWS game-window forecast: 47–50°F; wind 14–17 mph, gusts up to 33 mph; precipitation chance up to 49%. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final32–31Pregame Matrix 14–31
FavoriteBowling Green
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.3
Model Total45.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Bowling Green -16.3
Market Bowling Green -6.5
Gap 9.8 ptsResult LOSS · Bowling Green -6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 45.2
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 2.3 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Bowling Green · 86%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 14–31Final 32–31 · 17.8 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
CSCharleston SouthernFCS / Other
Final0–37Pregame Matrix 6–42
FavoriteClemson
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin35.3
Model Total47.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Clemson -35.3
Market No recorded pregame line
Result NO MARKET
Total
Prediction Matrix: 47.8
Market No recorded pregame total
Result NO MARKET
Winner
Prediction Clemson · 99%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 6–42Final 0–37 · 10.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
Week 7
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final42–45Pregame Matrix 28–26
FavoriteCincinnati
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.5
Model Total53.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Cincinnati -2.5
Market West Virginia -1.5
Gap 4.0 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Cincinnati +1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.7
Market O/U 63.5
Gap 9.8 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 63.5
Winner
Prediction Cincinnati · 57%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 28–26Final 42–45 · 33.3 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final27–24Pregame Matrix 19–30
FavoriteTexas
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.2
Model Total49.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Texas -11.2
Market Texas -10.5
Gap 0.7 ptsResult LOSS · Texas -10.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.2
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 3.3 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Texas · 77%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 19–30Final 27–24 · 1.8 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Quarterback availability Florida lists quarterback Aaron Philo as questionable for Texas in the latest SEC report. NWS game-window forecast: 58–66°F; wind 10 mph, gusts up to 22 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–56Pregame Matrix 27–31
FavoriteArmy
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.7
Model Total57.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Army -4.7
Market Army -2.5
Gap 2.2 ptsResult WIN · Army -2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 57.8
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 2.3 ptsResult WIN · OVER 55.5
Winner
Prediction Army · 62%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 27–31Final 24–56 · 22.2 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final22–49Pregame Matrix 16–40
FavoriteJames Madison
Model Win Prob94%
Model Margin23.3
Model Total56.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: James Madison -23.3
Market James Madison -12.5
Gap 10.8 ptsResult WIN · James Madison -12.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.0
Market O/U 58.5
Gap 2.5 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 58.5
Winner
Prediction James Madison · 94%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 16–40Final 22–49 · 15.0 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–35Pregame Matrix 24–32
FavoriteKansas State
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.8
Model Total56.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Kansas State -7.8
Market Kansas State -4.5
Gap 3.3 ptsResult WIN · Kansas State -4.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.0
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 0.5 ptsResult WIN · OVER 55.5
Winner
Prediction Kansas State · 70%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 24–32Final 24–35 · 3.0 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final0–31Pregame Matrix 18–35
FavoriteLSU
Model Win Prob87%
Model Margin16.8
Model Total52.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: LSU -16.8
Market LSU -14.0
Gap 2.8 ptsResult WIN · LSU -14.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.5
Market O/U 58.5
Gap 6.0 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 58.5
Winner
Prediction LSU · 87%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 18–35Final 0–31 · 21.5 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Player availability · Wind Mississippi State lists quarterback Kamario Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell as questionable in the latest SEC report. NWS game-window forecast: 62–70°F; wind 15 mph, gusts up to 23 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–21Pregame Matrix 27–21
FavoriteNorthwestern
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.6
Model Total48.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Northwestern -5.6
Market Northwestern -7.5
Gap 1.9 ptsResult WIN · Michigan State +7.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.0
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 0.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 48.5
Winner
Prediction Northwestern · 65%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 27–21Final 24–21 · 3.0 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final19–15Pregame Matrix 28–22
FavoriteOhio State
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.1
Model Total50.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Ohio State -5.1
Market Ohio State -3.5
Gap 1.6 ptsResult WIN · Ohio State -3.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 50.0
Market O/U 51.5
Gap 1.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 51.5
Winner
Prediction Ohio State · 63%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 28–22Final 19–15 · 16.0 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final21–27Pregame Matrix 30–24
FavoritePittsburgh
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.2
Model Total53.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Pittsburgh -6.2
Market Pittsburgh -6.5
Gap 0.3 ptsResult WIN · Boston College +6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.7
Market O/U 42.5
Gap 11.2 ptsResult WIN · OVER 42.5
Winner
Prediction Pittsburgh · 66%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 30–24Final 21–27 · 5.7 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Quarterback availability · Wind Pitt lists quarterback Mason Heintschel as out in the latest ACC report. The team announced he will miss the remainder of the season. NWS game-window forecast: 48–49°F; wind 15 mph, gusts up to 29 mph; precipitation chance up to 2%. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final13–23Pregame Matrix 20–30
FavoriteSMU
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.1
Model Total50.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: SMU -9.1
Market SMU -9.5
Gap 0.4 ptsResult LOSS · Virginia +9.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 50.0
Market O/U 51.5
Gap 1.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 51.5
Winner
Prediction SMU · 73%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 20–30Final 13–23 · 14.0 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 12:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final37–30Pregame Matrix 25–29
FavoriteMaryland
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.1
Model Total54.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Maryland -4.1
Market Maryland -4.5
Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · Rutgers +4.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.0
Market O/U 57.5
Gap 3.5 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 57.5
Winner
Prediction Maryland · 61%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 25–29Final 37–30 · 13.0 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final38–31Pregame Matrix 15–42
FavoriteTemple
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin27.6
Model Total56.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Temple -27.6
Market Temple -21.5
Gap 6.1 ptsResult LOSS · Temple -21.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.8
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 9.3 ptsResult WIN · OVER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Temple · 97%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 15–42Final 38–31 · 12.2 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Wind NWS game-window forecast: 52–53°F; wind 15–20 mph, gusts up to 33 mph; precipitation chance up to 11%. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final18–25Pregame Matrix 14–32
FavoriteBuffalo
Model Win Prob89%
Model Margin18.1
Model Total46.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Buffalo -18.1
Market Buffalo -6.5
Gap 11.6 ptsResult WIN · Buffalo -6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 46.3
Market O/U 41.5
Gap 4.8 ptsResult WIN · OVER 41.5
Winner
Prediction Buffalo · 89%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 14–32Final 18–25 · 3.3 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
TCThe CitadelFCS / Other
Final0–41Pregame Matrix 6–47
FavoriteTexas A&M
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin40.5
Model Total53.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Texas A&M -40.5
Market No recorded pregame line
Result NO MARKET
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.4
Market No recorded pregame total
Result NO MARKET
Winner
Prediction Texas A&M · 100%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 6–47Final 0–41 · 12.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 1:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final21–14Pregame Matrix 25–20
FavoriteWestern Michigan
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.3
Model Total45.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Western Michigan -5.3
Market Western Michigan -6.5
Gap 1.2 ptsResult LOSS · Central Michigan +6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 45.1
Market O/U 43.5
Gap 1.6 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 43.5
Winner
Prediction Western Michigan · 64%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 25–20Final 21–14 · 10.1 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final14–34Pregame Matrix 13–30
FavoriteMiami (OH)
Model Win Prob87%
Model Margin17.0
Model Total43.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Miami (OH) -17.0
Market Miami (OH) -9.5
Gap 7.5 ptsResult WIN · Miami (OH) -9.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 43.6
Market O/U 46.5
Gap 2.9 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 46.5
Winner
Prediction Miami (OH) · 87%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 13–30Final 14–34 · 4.4 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final10–26Pregame Matrix 29–24
FavoriteAlabama
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.3
Model Total53.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Alabama -4.3
Market Alabama -8.5
Gap 4.2 ptsResult WIN · Tennessee +8.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.0
Market O/U 51.5
Gap 1.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 51.5
Winner
Prediction Alabama · 61%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 29–24Final 10–26 · 17.0 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Quarterback availability · Wind Tennessee lists quarterback Faizon Brandon as questionable in the latest SEC report. NWS game-window forecast: 54–58°F; wind 10–15 mph, gusts up to 22 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final25–53Pregame Matrix 16–34
FavoriteTexas Tech
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin18.0
Model Total50.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Texas Tech -18.0
Market Texas Tech -14.5
Gap 3.5 ptsResult WIN · Texas Tech -14.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 50.0
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 1.5 ptsResult WIN · OVER 48.5
Winner
Prediction Texas Tech · 88%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 16–34Final 25–53 · 28.0 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final27–24Pregame Matrix 15–34
FavoriteGeorgia
Model Win Prob90%
Model Margin19.2
Model Total49.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Georgia -19.2
Market Georgia -20.5
Gap 1.3 ptsResult WIN · Auburn +20.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.8
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 0.3 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Georgia · 90%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 15–34Final 27–24 · 1.2 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–34Pregame Matrix 23–31
FavoriteVirginia Tech
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.9
Model Total53.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Virginia Tech -7.9
Market Virginia Tech -10.0
Gap 2.1 ptsResult PUSH · Georgia Tech +10.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.2
Market O/U 56.5
Gap 3.3 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 56.5
Winner
Prediction Virginia Tech · 70%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 23–31Final 24–34 · 4.8 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final3–31Pregame Matrix 25–28
FavoriteOle Miss
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin3.2
Model Total53.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Ole Miss -3.2
Market Ole Miss -6.0
Gap 2.8 ptsResult LOSS · Missouri +6.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.6
Market O/U 59.5
Gap 5.9 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 59.5
Winner
Prediction Ole Miss · 58%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 25–28Final 3–31 · 19.6 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–20Pregame Matrix 24–29
FavoriteDuke
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.6
Model Total53.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Duke -4.6
Market Duke -3.0
Gap 1.6 ptsResult LOSS · Duke -3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.0
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 5.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Duke · 62%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 24–29Final 24–20 · 9.0 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final23–41Pregame Matrix 15–26
FavoriteWyoming
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.0
Model Total42.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Wyoming -11.0
Market Wyoming -7.5
Gap 3.5 ptsResult WIN · Wyoming -7.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 42.0
Market O/U 40.5
Gap 1.5 ptsResult WIN · OVER 40.5
Winner
Prediction Wyoming · 77%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 15–26Final 23–41 · 22.0 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final18–21Pregame Matrix 23–26
FavoriteMichigan
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin2.9
Model Total48.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Michigan -2.9
Market Michigan -6.5
Gap 3.6 ptsResult WIN · Penn State +6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.5
Market O/U 42.5
Gap 6.0 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 42.5
Winner
Prediction Michigan · 58%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 23–26Final 18–21 · 9.5 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final34–14Pregame Matrix 25–22
FavoriteToledo
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin3.1
Model Total47.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Toledo -3.1
Market Toledo -6.5
Gap 3.4 ptsResult LOSS · Eastern Michigan +6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 47.1
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 6.4 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 53.5
Winner
Prediction Toledo · 58%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 25–22Final 34–14 · 0.9 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final31–41Pregame Matrix 31–26
FavoriteUNLV
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.5
Model Total57.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: UNLV -4.5
Market UNLV -1.5
Gap 3.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNLV -1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 57.2
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 8.7 ptsResult WIN · OVER 48.5
Winner
Prediction UNLV · 62%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 31–26Final 31–41 · 14.8 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 4:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final38–17Pregame Matrix 28–24
FavoriteTulsa
Model Win Prob59%
Model Margin3.5
Model Total51.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Tulsa -3.5
Market Tulsa -4.0
Gap 0.5 ptsResult LOSS · Rice +4.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 51.9
Market O/U 46.5
Gap 5.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 46.5
Winner
Prediction Tulsa · 59%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 28–24Final 38–17 · 3.1 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 5:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final6–33Pregame Matrix 28–28
FavoriteLouisiana
Model Win Prob50%
Model Margin0.0
Model Total56.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Louisiana -0.0
Market Louisiana -4.5
Gap 4.5 ptsResult LOSS · Troy +4.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.8
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 7.3 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Louisiana · 50%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 28–28Final 6–33 · 17.8 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium
SAT OCT 17 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final30–48Pregame Matrix 19–27
FavoriteOregon State
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.6
Model Total46.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Oregon State -7.6
Market Oregon State -17.5
Gap 9.9 ptsResult LOSS · Washington State +17.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 46.0
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 6.5 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Oregon State · 69%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 19–27Final 30–48 · 32.0 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final31–21Pregame Matrix 27–33
FavoriteVanderbilt
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.7
Model Total60.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Vanderbilt -5.7
Market Vanderbilt -6.0
Gap 0.3 ptsResult WIN · Arkansas +6.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 60.5
Market O/U 50.5
Gap 10.0 ptsResult WIN · OVER 50.5
Winner
Prediction Vanderbilt · 65%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 27–33Final 31–21 · 8.5 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final23–13Pregame Matrix 34–22
FavoriteArkansas State
Model Win Prob79%
Model Margin11.9
Model Total56.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Arkansas State -11.9
Market Arkansas State -7.0
Gap 4.9 ptsResult WIN · Arkansas State -7.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.5
Market O/U 62.5
Gap 6.0 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 62.5
Winner
Prediction Arkansas State · 79%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 34–22Final 23–13 · 20.5 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Quarterback availability · Wind Southern Miss lists quarterback Ethan Hampton as out in its latest Sun Belt report. Landry Lyddy leads the team in passing yards through five games. NWS game-window forecast: 59–69°F; wind 10–15 mph, gusts up to 26 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final35–43Pregame Matrix 15–35
FavoriteMiami (FL)
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin19.8
Model Total49.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Miami (FL) -19.8
Market Miami (FL) -21.0
Gap 1.2 ptsResult WIN · Florida State +21.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.9
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 5.6 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 55.5
Winner
Prediction Miami (FL) · 91%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 15–35Final 35–43 · 28.1 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Thunderstorms NWS game-window forecast: 77–79°F; wind 6–8 mph; precipitation chance up to 74%. Thunderstorms appear in the NWS hourly forecast; timing and local conditions can change. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final2–29Pregame Matrix 16–38
FavoriteSouth Florida
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin21.3
Model Total53.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: South Florida -21.3
Market South Florida -20.5
Gap 0.8 ptsResult WIN · South Florida -20.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.8
Market O/U 45.5
Gap 8.3 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 45.5
Winner
Prediction South Florida · 92%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 16–38Final 2–29 · 22.8 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final17–31Pregame Matrix 18–31
FavoriteNorth Dakota State
Model Win Prob81%
Model Margin13.2
Model Total48.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: North Dakota State -13.2
Market North Dakota State -15.5
Gap 2.3 ptsResult WIN · Nevada +15.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.6
Market O/U 42.5
Gap 6.1 ptsResult WIN · OVER 42.5
Winner
Prediction North Dakota State · 81%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 18–31Final 17–31 · 0.6 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final17–6Pregame Matrix 29–28
FavoriteTCU
Model Win Prob53%
Model Margin0.9
Model Total57.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: TCU -0.9
Market Baylor -6.0
Gap 6.9 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · TCU +6.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 57.3
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 8.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
Winner
Prediction TCU · 53%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 29–28Final 17–6 · 34.3 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
EElonFCS / Other
Final7–34Pregame Matrix 21–29
FavoriteStanford
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.2
Model Total49.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Stanford -8.2
Market No recorded pregame line
Result NO MARKET
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.4
Market No recorded pregame total
Result NO MARKET
Winner
Prediction Stanford · 71%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 21–29Final 7–34 · 8.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final21–13Pregame Matrix 17–29
FavoriteOklahoma
Model Win Prob79%
Model Margin12.2
Model Total46.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Oklahoma -12.2
Market Oklahoma -7.0
Gap 5.2 ptsResult LOSS · Oklahoma -7.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 46.2
Market O/U 43.5
Gap 2.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 43.5
Winner
Prediction Oklahoma · 79%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 17–29Final 21–13 · 12.2 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final34–26Pregame Matrix 30–20
FavoriteLouisville
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.6
Model Total49.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Louisville -10.6
Market Louisville -14.5
Gap 3.9 ptsResult WIN · Syracuse +14.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.7
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 5.8 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 55.5
Winner
Prediction Louisville · 76%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 30–20Final 34–26 · 10.3 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Quarterback availability Syracuse lists Steve Angeli and Malachi Nelson as questionable and Amari Odom as out in the latest ACC report. All three have started games this season. Indoor game at JMA Wireless Dome. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:40 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–28Pregame Matrix 31–22
FavoriteNotre Dame
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.9
Model Total53.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Notre Dame -8.9
Market Notre Dame -10.0
Gap 1.1 ptsResult WIN · BYU +10.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.6
Market O/U 46.5
Gap 7.1 ptsResult WIN · OVER 46.5
Winner
Prediction Notre Dame · 72%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 31–22Final 24–28 · 1.6 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final32–35Pregame Matrix 25–29
FavoriteHouston
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.5
Model Total54.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Houston -4.5
Market Houston -4.5
Gap 0.0 ptsResult WIN · Oklahoma State +4.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.5
Market O/U 62.5
Gap 8.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 62.5
Winner
Prediction Houston · 62%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 25–29Final 32–35 · 12.5 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final7–17Pregame Matrix 20–27
FavoriteUCLA
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin7.0
Model Total46.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: UCLA -7.0
Market UCLA -2.5
Gap 4.5 ptsResult WIN · UCLA -2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 46.4
Market O/U 43.5
Gap 2.9 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 43.5
Winner
Prediction UCLA · 68%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 20–27Final 7–17 · 22.4 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Quarterback availability · Heat UCLA lists Nico Iamaleava as out in the latest Big Ten report. Ty Dieffenbach replaced him after halftime against Oregon. NWS game-window forecast: 78–92°F; wind 5 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–0Pregame Matrix 34–19
FavoriteLouisiana Tech
Model Win Prob84%
Model Margin15.0
Model Total52.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Louisiana Tech -15.0
Market Louisiana Tech -15.5
Gap 0.5 ptsResult LOSS · UL Monroe +15.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.7
Market O/U 57.5
Gap 4.8 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 57.5
Winner
Prediction Louisiana Tech · 84%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 34–19Final 24–0 · 28.7 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final34–38Pregame Matrix 28–31
FavoriteUTSA
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.7
Model Total59.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: UTSA -2.7
Market UTSA -6.5
Gap 3.8 ptsResult WIN · Navy +6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 59.5
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 4.0 ptsResult WIN · OVER 55.5
Winner
Prediction UTSA · 57%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 28–31Final 34–38 · 12.5 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final24–11Pregame Matrix 29–21
FavoriteSan Jose State
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.9
Model Total50.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: San Jose State -7.9
Market San Jose State -7.5
Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · San Jose State -7.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 50.5
Market O/U 46.5
Gap 4.0 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 46.5
Winner
Prediction San Jose State · 70%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 29–21Final 24–11 · 15.5 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 10:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final48–7Pregame Matrix 28–17
FavoriteOhio
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.5
Model Total45.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Ohio -11.5
Market Ohio -15.5
Gap 4.0 ptsResult LOSS · Sacramento State +15.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 45.2
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 3.3 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 48.5
Winner
Prediction Ohio · 78%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 28–17Final 48–7 · 9.8 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 10:15 PM EDTFINAL
Final27–24Pregame Matrix 33–20
FavoriteUtah
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.6
Model Total53.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Utah -12.6
Market Utah -15.5
Gap 2.9 ptsResult WIN · Colorado +15.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.1
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 3.6 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Utah · 80%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 33–20Final 27–24 · 2.1 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final23–26Pregame Matrix 23–21
FavoriteFresno State
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.7
Model Total44.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Fresno State -2.7
Market Fresno State -7.5
Gap 4.8 ptsResult WIN · San Diego State +7.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 44.1
Market O/U 46.5
Gap 2.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 46.5
Winner
Prediction Fresno State · 57%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 23–21Final 23–26 · 4.9 pts higher
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SAT OCT 17 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final21–10Pregame Matrix 33–21
FavoriteNew Mexico
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.7
Model Total53.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: New Mexico -11.7
Market New Mexico -14.5
Gap 2.8 ptsResult WIN · Hawaii +14.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.7
Market O/U 45.5
Gap 8.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 45.5
Winner
Prediction New Mexico · 78%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 33–21Final 21–10 · 22.7 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Wind NWS game-window forecast: 77–84°F; wind 20–21 mph, gusts up to 29 mph; precipitation chance up to 23%. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
Final41–7Pregame Matrix 26–25
FavoriteWake Forest
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.5
Model Total50.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Wake Forest -1.5
Market Wake Forest -9.5
Gap 8.0 ptsResult LOSS · California +9.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 50.7
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 2.8 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 53.5
Winner
Prediction Wake Forest · 54%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 26–25Final 41–7 · 2.7 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
California Memorial Stadium
Quarterback availability Cal lists quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele as questionable in the latest ACC report. NWS game-window forecast: 61–69°F; wind 0–2 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
SAT OCT 17 · 11:00 PM EDTFINAL
Final14–17Pregame Matrix 18–34
FavoriteOregon
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.2
Model Total52.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Oregon -16.2
Market Oregon -7.5
Gap 8.7 ptsResult LOSS · Oregon -7.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.5
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 0.0 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Oregon · 86%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 18–34Final 14–17 · 21.5 pts lower
Draft Kings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Quarterback availability Oregon lists Dante Moore as out in the latest Big Ten report. Oregon used Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas against UCLA. NWS game-window forecast: 52–57°F; wind 6–8 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET
TUE OCT 6 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL34–55Pregame Matrix 18–37
FavoriteTroy
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin19.9
Model Total54.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Troy -19.9
Market Troy -10.5
Gap 9.4 ptsResult WIN · Troy -10.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.9
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 5.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Troy · 91%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 18–37Final 34–55 · 34.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.
WED OCT 7 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL27–26Pregame Matrix 27–27
FavoriteJacksonville State
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.2
Model Total54.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Jacksonville State -0.2
Market Jacksonville State -3.0
Gap 2.8 ptsResult WIN · Kennesaw State +3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.7
Market O/U 50.5
Gap 4.2 ptsResult WIN · OVER 50.5
Winner
Prediction Jacksonville State · 51%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 27–27Final 27–26 · 1.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium
Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.
WED OCT 7 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL3–22Pregame Matrix 24–29
FavoriteFlorida International
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.6
Model Total53.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Florida International -4.6
Market Florida International -5.5
Gap 0.9 ptsResult LOSS · New Mexico State +5.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.0
Market O/U 46.5
Gap 6.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 46.5
Winner
Prediction Florida International · 62%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 24–29Final 3–22 · 28.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.
THU OCT 8 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL13–34Pregame Matrix 22–33
FavoriteWestern Kentucky
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.6
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Western Kentucky -11.6
Market Western Kentucky -2.5
Gap 9.1 ptsResult WIN · Western Kentucky -2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.3
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 0.2 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
Winner
Prediction Western Kentucky · 78%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 22–33Final 13–34 · 8.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.
THU OCT 8 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL3–35Pregame Matrix 17–40
FavoriteLiberty
Model Win Prob94%
Model Margin23.2
Model Total56.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Liberty -23.2
Market Liberty -13.5
Gap 9.7 ptsResult WIN · Liberty -13.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.7
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 4.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Liberty · 94%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 17–40Final 3–35 · 18.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.
THU OCT 8 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL56–49Pregame Matrix 26–32
FavoriteArkansas State
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.4
Model Total57.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Arkansas State -6.4
Market Arkansas State -1.5
Gap 4.9 ptsResult LOSS · Arkansas State -1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 57.5
Market O/U 57.5
Gap 0.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 57.5
Winner
Prediction Arkansas State · 66%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 26–32Final 56–49 · 47.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.
THU OCT 8 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL24–31Pregame Matrix 28–32
FavoriteUTSA
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.2
Model Total59.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: UTSA -4.2
Market UTSA -7.0
Gap 2.8 ptsResult PUSH · South Florida +7.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 59.9
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 7.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 52.5
Winner
Prediction UTSA · 61%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 28–32Final 24–31 · 4.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Closed to new selections; no current prekickoff quote. Game Day report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. No fresh pregame forecast; game closed to new selections.
FRI OCT 9 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL20–44Pregame Matrix 24–27
FavoriteLouisville
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin3.0
Model Total51.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Louisville -3.0
Market Louisville -5.5
Gap 2.5 ptsResult LOSS · Florida State +5.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 51.1
Market O/U 58.5
Gap 7.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 58.5
Winner
Prediction Louisville · 58%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 24–27Final 20–44 · 12.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Closed to new selections; no current prekickoff quote. Game Day report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. No fresh pregame forecast; game closed to new selections.
FRI OCT 9 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL41–24Pregame Matrix 23–25
FavoriteWashington
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin2.1
Model Total47.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Washington -2.1
Market Washington -2.5
Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · Iowa +2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 47.6
Market O/U 41.5
Gap 6.1 ptsResult WIN · OVER 41.5
Winner
Prediction Washington · 55%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 23–25Final 41–24 · 17.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Iowa +3 (-118), Washington -3 (-102); O/U 40.5 (over -118, under -102). Recorded market quote. Game Day report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 3 mph; precipitation 7–19%.
FRI OCT 9 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL16–17Pregame Matrix 23–26
FavoriteUtah State
Model Win Prob59%
Model Margin3.4
Model Total49.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Utah State -3.4
Market Utah State -4.0
Gap 0.6 ptsResult WIN · Washington State +4.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.2
Market O/U 42.5
Gap 6.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 42.5
Winner
Prediction Utah State · 59%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 23–26Final 16–17 · 16.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Washington State +4 (-110), Utah State -4 (-110); O/U 43.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Game Day Report report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 13 mph; precipitation 1–5%.
FRI OCT 9 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL16–13Pregame Matrix 22–24
FavoriteSan Jose State
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin1.9
Model Total45.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: San Jose State -1.9
Market San Jose State -6.5
Gap 4.6 ptsResult WIN · Wyoming +6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 45.9
Market O/U 43.5
Gap 2.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 43.5
Winner
Prediction San Jose State · 55%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 22–24Final 16–13 · 16.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Wyoming +4.5 (-115), San Jose State -4.5 (-105); O/U 42.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 7 mph; precipitation 1–2%.
FRI OCT 9 · 10:15 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL10–24Pregame Matrix 15–33
FavoriteBYU
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.5
Model Total48.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: BYU -17.5
Market BYU -10.5
Gap 7.0 ptsResult WIN · BYU -10.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.0
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 0.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 48.5
Winner
Prediction BYU · 88%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 15–33Final 10–24 · 14.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Iowa State +11.5 (-112), BYU -11.5 (-108); O/U 46.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Update 2 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 12 mph; precipitation 7–27%.
SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL52–31Pregame Matrix 30–22
FavoriteArizona
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.8
Model Total52.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Arizona -8.8
Market Arizona -3.0
Gap 5.8 ptsResult WIN · Arizona -3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.1
Market O/U 60.5
Gap 8.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 60.5
Winner
Prediction Arizona · 72%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 30–22Final 52–31 · 30.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Arizona -3.5 (-108), West Virginia +3.5 (-112); O/U 60.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 9 mph; precipitation 1–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL20–17Pregame Matrix 31–20
FavoriteIndiana
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.6
Model Total51.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Indiana -10.6
Market Indiana -8.5
Gap 2.1 ptsResult LOSS · Indiana -8.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 51.2
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 1.3 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Indiana · 76%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 31–20Final 20–17 · 14.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Friday observed DraftKings: Indiana -7.5 (-115), Nebraska +7.5 (-105); O/U 48.5 (over -102, under -118). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 21 mph; precipitation 0–0%.
SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL21–17Pregame Matrix 21–28
FavoritePittsburgh
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin6.9
Model Total49.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Pittsburgh -6.9
Market Pittsburgh -4.0
Gap 2.9 ptsResult LOSS · Pittsburgh -4.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.6
Market O/U 46.5
Gap 3.1 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 46.5
Winner
Prediction Pittsburgh · 68%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 21–28Final 21–17 · 11.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: North Carolina +3.5 (-108), Pittsburgh -3.5 (-112); O/U 47.5 (over -102, under -118). Recorded market quote. Pittsburgh: Mason Heintschel Out Game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph; precipitation 1–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL10–38Pregame Matrix 17–30
FavoriteBowling Green
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.6
Model Total47.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Bowling Green -13.6
Market Bowling Green -7.0
Gap 6.6 ptsResult WIN · Bowling Green -7.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 47.1
Market O/U 42.5
Gap 4.6 ptsResult WIN · OVER 42.5
Winner
Prediction Bowling Green · 82%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 17–30Final 10–38 · 0.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Sacramento State +8.5 (-112), Bowling Green -8.5 (-108); O/U 43.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 12 mph; precipitation 1–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL6–27Pregame Matrix 28–24
FavoriteTexas A&M
Model Win Prob59%
Model Margin3.3
Model Total52.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Texas A&M -3.3
Market Missouri -4.5
Gap 7.8 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Texas A&M +4.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.2
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 3.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
Winner
Prediction Texas A&M · 59%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 28–24Final 6–27 · 19.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Texas A&M +3.5 (-110), Missouri -3.5 (-110); O/U 49.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 6 mph; precipitation 0–0%.
SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL17–20Pregame Matrix 23–28
FavoriteArmy
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.0
Model Total51.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Army -5.0
Market Army -3.5
Gap 1.5 ptsResult LOSS · Army -3.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 51.3
Market O/U 46.5
Gap 4.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 46.5
Winner
Prediction Army · 63%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 23–28Final 17–20 · 14.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Tulane +3.5 (-112), Army -3.5 (-108); O/U 48.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 2 mph; precipitation 0–0%.
SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL28–42Pregame Matrix 20–30
FavoriteOklahoma State
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.5
Model Total49.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Oklahoma State -9.5
Market Oklahoma State -10.0
Gap 0.5 ptsResult LOSS · UCF +10.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.9
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 3.6 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 53.5
Winner
Prediction Oklahoma State · 74%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 20–30Final 28–42 · 20.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: UCF +10.5 (-108), Oklahoma State -10.5 (-112); O/U 53.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. UCF: Alonza Barnett III Out Game-window forecast: wind up to 8 mph; precipitation 0–0%.
SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL38–14Pregame Matrix 24–27
FavoriteNC State
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin3.0
Model Total51.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: NC State -3.0
Market Wake Forest -3.5
Gap 6.5 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · NC State +3.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 51.0
Market O/U 60.5
Gap 9.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 60.5
Winner
Prediction NC State · 58%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 24–27Final 38–14 · 1.0 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Wake Forest -3 (-115), NC State +3 (-105); O/U 58.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 13 mph; precipitation 19–65%.
SAT OCT 10 · 12:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL14–45Pregame Matrix 4–43
FavoriteNorthwestern
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin38.8
Model Total46.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Northwestern -38.8
Market Northwestern -36.5
Gap 2.3 ptsResult LOSS · Northwestern -36.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 46.2
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 6.3 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Northwestern · 100%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 4–43Final 14–45 · 12.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Ball State +35.5 (-108), Northwestern -35.5 (-112); O/U 53.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 15 mph; precipitation 0–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 12:45 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL38–19Pregame Matrix 20–28
FavoriteFlorida
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.8
Model Total48.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Florida -8.8
Market Florida -14.0
Gap 5.2 ptsResult WIN · South Carolina +14.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.2
Market O/U 61.5
Gap 13.3 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 61.5
Winner
Prediction Florida · 72%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 20–28Final 38–19 · 8.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: South Carolina +10.5 (-105), Florida -10.5 (-115); O/U 58.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 18 mph; precipitation 42–67%. Thunderstorm flag.
SAT OCT 10 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL10–3Pregame Matrix 25–25
FavoriteAppalachian State
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.5
Model Total49.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Appalachian State -0.5
Market Appalachian State -10.0
Gap 9.5 ptsResult WIN · Old Dominion +10.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.7
Market O/U 50.5
Gap 0.8 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 50.5
Winner
Prediction Appalachian State · 51%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 25–25Final 10–3 · 36.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Old Dominion +10 (-112), Appalachian State -10 (-108); O/U 47.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 18 mph; precipitation 70–89%.
SAT OCT 10 · 2:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL20–19Pregame Matrix 34–12
FavoriteMiami (OH)
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin22.0
Model Total46.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Miami (OH) -22.0
Market Miami (OH) -2.5
Gap 19.5 ptsResult LOSS · Miami (OH) -2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 46.2
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 1.3 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Miami (OH) · 93%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 34–12Final 20–19 · 7.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Friday observed DraftKings: Miami (OH) -4.5 (-112), Massachusetts +4.5 (-108); O/U 44.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 2 mph; precipitation 0–0%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL23–8Pregame Matrix 19–25
FavoriteToledo
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.4
Model Total43.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Toledo -6.4
Market Toledo -19.5
Gap 13.1 ptsResult WIN · Buffalo +19.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 43.6
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 11.9 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
Winner
Prediction Toledo · 67%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 19–25Final 23–8 · 12.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Buffalo +18.5 (-108), Toledo -18.5 (-112); O/U 55.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 9 mph; precipitation 0–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL14–31Pregame Matrix 21–21
FavoriteOhio
Model Win Prob52%
Model Margin0.8
Model Total42.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Ohio -0.8
Market Ohio -3.5
Gap 2.7 ptsResult LOSS · Central Michigan +3.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 42.2
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 5.3 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Ohio · 52%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 21–21Final 14–31 · 2.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Central Michigan +1.5 (-105), Ohio -1.5 (-115); O/U 46.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 9 mph; precipitation 2–5%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL10–50Pregame Matrix 16–41
FavoriteNorth Texas
Model Win Prob95%
Model Margin25.4
Model Total57.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: North Texas -25.4
Market North Texas -27.5
Gap 2.1 ptsResult LOSS · Charlotte +27.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 57.3
Market O/U 59.5
Gap 2.2 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 59.5
Winner
Prediction North Texas · 95%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 16–41Final 10–50 · 2.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Charlotte +28.5 (-108), North Texas -28.5 (-112); O/U 57.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 0–0%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL25–28Pregame Matrix 29–27
FavoriteDuke
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin2.0
Model Total57.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Duke -2.0
Market Duke -7.0
Gap 5.0 ptsResult WIN · Georgia Tech +7.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 57.0
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 7.5 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Duke · 55%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 29–27Final 25–28 · 4.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Duke -6.5 (-115), Georgia Tech +6.5 (-105); O/U 43.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 20 mph; precipitation 74–96%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL25–23Pregame Matrix 25–22
FavoriteEastern Michigan
Model Win Prob56%
Model Margin2.2
Model Total47.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Eastern Michigan -2.2
Market Eastern Michigan -6.5
Gap 4.3 ptsResult WIN · Akron +6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 47.1
Market O/U 50.5
Gap 3.4 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 50.5
Winner
Prediction Eastern Michigan · 56%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 25–22Final 25–23 · 0.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Eastern Michigan -5.5 (-110), Akron +5.5 (-110); O/U 51.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 9 mph; precipitation 0–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL35–16Pregame Matrix 27–29
FavoriteKansas State
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.7
Model Total55.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Kansas State -1.7
Market Kansas State -2.5
Gap 0.8 ptsResult WIN · Houston +2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.8
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 0.3 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 55.5
Winner
Prediction Kansas State · 54%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 27–29Final 35–16 · 4.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Friday observed DraftKings: Houston +2.5 (-110), Kansas State -2.5 (-110); O/U 55.5 (over -102, under -118). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 15 mph; precipitation 0–0%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL38–37Pregame Matrix 30–24
FavoriteIllinois
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.0
Model Total53.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Illinois -6.0
Market Illinois -3.5
Gap 2.5 ptsResult LOSS · Illinois -3.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.4
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 3.9 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Illinois · 66%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 30–24Final 38–37 · 21.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Illinois -2.5 (-120), Michigan State +2.5 (+100); O/U 47.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 12 mph; precipitation 0–2%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL7–38Pregame Matrix 16–32
FavoriteWestern Michigan
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.5
Model Total47.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Western Michigan -16.5
Market Western Michigan -13.5
Gap 3.0 ptsResult WIN · Western Michigan -13.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 47.5
Market O/U 43.5
Gap 4.0 ptsResult WIN · OVER 43.5
Winner
Prediction Western Michigan · 86%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 16–32Final 7–38 · 2.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Kent State +14 (-112), Western Michigan -14 (-108); O/U 43.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph; precipitation 0–3%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL52–17Pregame Matrix 32–26
FavoriteOle Miss
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.5
Model Total57.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Ole Miss -5.5
Market Ole Miss -10.0
Gap 4.5 ptsResult LOSS · Vanderbilt +10.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 57.6
Market O/U 59.5
Gap 1.9 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 59.5
Winner
Prediction Ole Miss · 64%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 32–26Final 52–17 · 11.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Ole Miss -9.5 (-112), Vanderbilt +9.5 (-108); O/U 54.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 15 mph; precipitation 78–96%. Thunderstorm flag.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL7–58Pregame Matrix 8–43
FavoriteNotre Dame
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin34.4
Model Total51.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Notre Dame -34.4
Market Notre Dame -37.5
Gap 3.1 ptsResult LOSS · Stanford +37.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 51.3
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 2.2 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 53.5
Winner
Prediction Notre Dame · 99%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 8–43Final 7–58 · 13.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Stanford +39.5 (-108), Notre Dame -39.5 (-112); O/U 54.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph; precipitation 0–0%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL24–27Pregame Matrix 28–20
FavoriteTexas
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.9
Model Total48.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Texas -7.9
Market Texas -7.5
Gap 0.4 ptsResult LOSS · Texas -7.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.1
Market O/U 39.5
Gap 8.6 ptsResult WIN · OVER 39.5
Winner
Prediction Texas · 70%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 28–20Final 24–27 · 2.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Texas -7.5 (-105), Oklahoma +7.5 (-115); O/U 39.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 0–0%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL26–34Pregame Matrix 23–32
FavoriteNavy
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.4
Model Total55.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Navy -9.4
Market Navy -2.5
Gap 6.9 ptsResult WIN · Navy -2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.4
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 5.9 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Navy · 73%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 23–32Final 26–34 · 4.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Friday observed DraftKings: Tulsa +1.5 (-105), Navy -1.5 (-115); O/U 48.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 9 mph; precipitation 1–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL17–15Pregame Matrix 17–39
FavoriteOregon
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin22.0
Model Total55.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Oregon -22.0
Market Oregon -11.5
Gap 10.5 ptsResult LOSS · Oregon -11.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.0
Market O/U 59.5
Gap 4.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 59.5
Winner
Prediction Oregon · 93%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 17–39Final 17–15 · 23.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: UCLA +10.5 (-112), Oregon -10.5 (-108); O/U 58.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Oregon: Dante Moore Out Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 4–7%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL20–25Pregame Matrix 30–25
FavoriteVirginia Tech
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.5
Model Total55.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Virginia Tech -5.5
Market Virginia Tech -9.5
Gap 4.0 ptsResult WIN · California +9.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.0
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 1.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 53.5
Winner
Prediction Virginia Tech · 64%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 30–25Final 20–25 · 10.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
California Memorial Stadium
Friday observed DraftKings: Virginia Tech -10 (-110), California +10 (-110); O/U 53.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. California: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Questionable Game-window forecast: wind up to 12 mph; precipitation 0–3%.
SAT OCT 10 · 3:45 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL34–20Pregame Matrix 25–31
FavoriteTemple
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.3
Model Total56.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Temple -5.3
Market Temple -3.5
Gap 1.8 ptsResult LOSS · Temple -3.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.3
Market O/U 54.5
Gap 1.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 54.5
Winner
Prediction Temple · 64%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 25–31Final 34–20 · 2.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: UConn +3.5 (-108), Temple -3.5 (-112); O/U 54.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 1–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL12–28Pregame Matrix 18–31
FavoriteEast Carolina
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.5
Model Total49.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: East Carolina -12.5
Market East Carolina -10.0
Gap 2.5 ptsResult WIN · East Carolina -10.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.5
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 0.0 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 49.5
Winner
Prediction East Carolina · 80%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 18–31Final 12–28 · 9.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Rice +10 (-108), East Carolina -10 (-112); O/U 46.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 14 mph; precipitation 28–47%.
SAT OCT 10 · 4:15 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL16–45Pregame Matrix 8–41
FavoriteOhio State
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin32.6
Model Total48.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Ohio State -32.6
Market Ohio State -34.5
Gap 1.9 ptsResult WIN · Maryland +34.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.7
Market O/U 56.5
Gap 7.8 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 56.5
Winner
Prediction Ohio State · 99%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 8–41Final 16–45 · 12.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Maryland +33.5 (-112), Ohio State -33.5 (-108); O/U 56.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 15 mph; precipitation 1–12%.
SAT OCT 10 · 4:15 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL24–17Pregame Matrix 38–25
FavoriteTennessee
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.4
Model Total62.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Tennessee -12.4
Market Tennessee -13.5
Gap 1.1 ptsResult WIN · Arkansas +13.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 62.9
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 13.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Tennessee · 80%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 38–25Final 24–17 · 21.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Friday observed DraftKings: Tennessee -13.5 (-110), Arkansas +13.5 (-110); O/U 51.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Tennessee: Faizon Brandon Questionable Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 0–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL14–66Pregame Matrix 22–26
FavoriteOregon State
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.0
Model Total47.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Oregon State -4.0
Market Oregon State -14.0
Gap 10.0 ptsResult LOSS · San Diego State +14.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 47.2
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 8.3 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 55.5
Winner
Prediction Oregon State · 61%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 22–26Final 14–66 · 32.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: San Diego State +16.5 (-112), Oregon State -16.5 (-108); O/U 52.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Second Report report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 3 mph; precipitation 3–15%.
SAT OCT 10 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL27–21Pregame Matrix 26–34
FavoriteMarshall
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.6
Model Total60.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Marshall -7.6
Market Marshall -3.0
Gap 4.6 ptsResult LOSS · Marshall -3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 60.5
Market O/U 57.5
Gap 3.0 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 57.5
Winner
Prediction Marshall · 69%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 26–34Final 27–21 · 12.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Coastal Carolina +4 (-108), Marshall -4 (-112); O/U 58.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 12 mph; precipitation 23–54%. Thunderstorm flag.
SAT OCT 10 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL34–35Pregame Matrix 30–16
FavoriteLSU
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.1
Model Total46.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: LSU -14.1
Market LSU -9.5
Gap 4.6 ptsResult LOSS · LSU -9.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 46.3
Market O/U 54.5
Gap 8.2 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 54.5
Winner
Prediction LSU · 83%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 30–16Final 34–35 · 22.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: LSU -8.5 (-112), Kentucky +8.5 (-108); O/U 50.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 20 mph; precipitation 72–84%. Thunderstorm flag.
SAT OCT 10 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL30–13Pregame Matrix 29–19
FavoriteNevada
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.1
Model Total48.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Nevada -9.1
Market Nevada -9.5
Gap 0.4 ptsResult LOSS · UTEP +9.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.0
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 1.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Nevada · 73%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 29–19Final 30–13 · 5.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Nevada -9.5 (-115), UTEP +9.5 (-105); O/U 49.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph; precipitation 1–5%.
SAT OCT 10 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL7–13Pregame Matrix 24–31
FavoriteUNLV
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.4
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: UNLV -7.4
Market North Dakota State -3.0
Gap 10.4 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · UNLV +3.0
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.3
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 5.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 49.5
Winner
Prediction UNLV · 69%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 24–31Final 7–13 · 35.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: North Dakota State -2.5 (-112), UNLV +2.5 (-108); O/U 47.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Indoor venue.
SAT OCT 10 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL13–38Pregame Matrix 21–38
FavoriteMemphis
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.5
Model Total59.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Memphis -17.5
Market Memphis -14.5
Gap 3.0 ptsResult WIN · Memphis -14.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 59.2
Market O/U 58.5
Gap 0.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 58.5
Winner
Prediction Memphis · 88%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 21–38Final 13–38 · 8.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Friday observed DraftKings: UAB +14.5 (-112), Memphis -14.5 (-108); O/U 53.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 20 mph; precipitation 36–58%.
SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL28–7Pregame Matrix 32–17
FavoriteAir Force
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.2
Model Total49.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Air Force -14.2
Market Air Force -11.5
Gap 2.7 ptsResult WIN · Air Force -11.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.0
Market O/U 47.5
Gap 1.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 47.5
Winner
Prediction Air Force · 83%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 32–17Final 28–7 · 14.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Air Force -7 (-115), Northern Illinois +7 (-105); O/U 46.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph; precipitation 0–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL20–17Pregame Matrix 25–23
FavoriteGeorgia
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.5
Model Total48.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Georgia -2.5
Market Alabama -1.5
Gap 4.0 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · Georgia +1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 48.1
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 7.4 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
Winner
Prediction Georgia · 57%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 25–23Final 20–17 · 11.1 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Georgia +1.5 (-108), Alabama -1.5 (-112); O/U 51.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 15 mph; precipitation 32–48%.
SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL27–24Pregame Matrix 31–23
FavoriteJames Madison
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.8
Model Total53.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: James Madison -7.8
Market James Madison -8.5
Gap 0.7 ptsResult WIN · Georgia Southern +8.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 53.5
Market O/U 53.5
Gap 0.0 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 53.5
Winner
Prediction James Madison · 70%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 31–23Final 27–24 · 2.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: James Madison -7.5 (-105), Georgia Southern +7.5 (-115); O/U 51.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 13 mph; precipitation 52–78%. Thunderstorm flag.
SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL31–32Pregame Matrix 27–30
FavoriteLouisiana Tech
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.7
Model Total56.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Louisiana Tech -2.7
Market Louisiana Tech -2.5
Gap 0.2 ptsResult LOSS · Louisiana Tech -2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 56.7
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 8.2 ptsResult WIN · OVER 48.5
Winner
Prediction Louisiana Tech · 57%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 27–30Final 31–32 · 6.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Louisiana +3 (-105), Louisiana Tech -3 (-115); O/U 48.5 (over -102, under -118). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 20 mph; precipitation 0–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL25–28Pregame Matrix 20–27
FavoriteVirginia
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.4
Model Total47.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Virginia -7.4
Market Virginia -9.5
Gap 2.1 ptsResult WIN · Syracuse +9.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 47.1
Market O/U 49.5
Gap 2.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 49.5
Winner
Prediction Virginia · 69%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 20–27Final 25–28 · 5.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Syracuse +10 (-110), Virginia -10 (-110); O/U 50.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 7 mph; precipitation 18–37%.
SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL31–23Pregame Matrix 26–28
FavoritePenn State
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin2.1
Model Total54.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Penn State -2.1
Market Penn State -1.5
Gap 0.6 ptsResult LOSS · Penn State -1.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 54.9
Market O/U 55.5
Gap 0.6 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
Winner
Prediction Penn State · 55%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 26–28Final 31–23 · 0.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: USC +1.5 (-108), Penn State -1.5 (-112); O/U 54.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 3 mph; precipitation 0–1%.
SAT OCT 10 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL13–41Pregame Matrix 28–21
FavoriteMinnesota
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.7
Model Total49.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Minnesota -6.7
Market Minnesota -2.5
Gap 4.2 ptsResult LOSS · Minnesota -2.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 49.1
Market O/U 51.5
Gap 2.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 51.5
Winner
Prediction Minnesota · 67%Result WRONG
Score
Prediction 28–21Final 13–41 · 4.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Minnesota -2.5 (-115), Purdue +2.5 (-105); O/U 49.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 8 mph; precipitation 6–6%.
SAT OCT 10 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL12–30Pregame Matrix 19–34
FavoriteArizona State
Model Win Prob84%
Model Margin14.9
Model Total52.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Arizona State -14.9
Market Arizona State -21.5
Gap 6.6 ptsResult WIN · Hawaii +21.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 52.6
Market O/U 51.5
Gap 1.1 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 51.5
Winner
Prediction Arizona State · 84%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 19–34Final 12–30 · 10.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Hawaii +21 (-112), Arizona State -21 (-108); O/U 50.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 34–72%. Thunderstorm flag.
SAT OCT 10 · 10:15 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL24–41Pregame Matrix 21–35
FavoriteUtah
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.2
Model Total55.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Utah -14.2
Market No recorded pregame line
Result NO MARKET
Total
Prediction Matrix: 55.4
Market O/U 52.5
Gap 2.9 ptsResult WIN · OVER 52.5
Winner
Prediction Utah · 83%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 21–35Final 24–41 · 9.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Friday observed DraftKings: Kansas +15.5 (-110), Utah -15.5 (-110); O/U 51.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 20 mph; precipitation 12–88%. Thunderstorm flag.
SAT OCT 10 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL38–31Pregame Matrix 27–20
FavoriteBoise State
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin7.0
Model Total47.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread
Prediction Matrix: Boise State -7.0
Market Boise State -6.5
Gap 0.5 ptsResult WIN · Boise State -6.5
Total
Prediction Matrix: 47.3
Market O/U 48.5
Gap 1.2 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 48.5
Winner
Prediction Boise State · 68%Result RIGHT
Score
Prediction 27–20Final 38–31 · 21.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Valley Children's Stadium
Friday observed DraftKings: Boise State -7 (-110), Fresno State +7 (-110); O/U 48.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Second Report report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 0–0%.
THU OCT 1 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL13–34Pregame Matrix 30–25
FavoriteWestern Kentucky
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.2
Model Total54.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Western Kentucky +1.5 · L
TotalMatrix 54.4 / Market 53.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 30–25 · Final 13–34
Recorded pregame market
THU OCT 1 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL45–44Pregame Matrix 27–31
FavoriteTulsa
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.6
Model Total57.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Tulsa -1.5 · L
TotalMatrix 57.9 / Market 58.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 27–31 · Final 45–44
Recorded pregame market
FRI OCT 2 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL30–14Pregame Matrix 31–28
FavoriteLiberty
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.5
Model Total58.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Delaware +6.5 · L
TotalMatrix 58.8 / Market 50.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–28 · Final 30–14
Recorded pregame market
FRI OCT 2 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL35–33Pregame Matrix 25–29
FavoriteVirginia Tech
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.4
Model Total54.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Pittsburgh +5.5 · W
TotalMatrix 54.1 / Market 53.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 25–29 · Final 35–33
Recorded pregame market
FRI OCT 2 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL13–34Pregame Matrix 27–20
FavoritePenn State
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin7.2
Model Total47.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Penn State -3 · L
TotalMatrix 47.3 / Market 48.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 27–20 · Final 13–34
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL56–23Pregame Matrix 31–21
FavoriteAlabama
Model Win Prob75%
Model Margin10.2
Model Total51.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Alabama -5.5 · W
TotalMatrix 51.8 / Market 59.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–21 · Final 56–23
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL16–25Pregame Matrix 18–35
FavoriteSMU
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.5
Model Total53.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Boston College +21 · W
TotalMatrix 53.5 / Market 56.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–35 · Final 16–25
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL14–20Pregame Matrix 28–18
FavoriteMichigan
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.3
Model Total45.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Michigan -6.5 · L
TotalMatrix 45.7 / Market 44.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 28–18 · Final 14–20
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL0–55Pregame Matrix 13–42
FavoriteKansas
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin28.7
Model Total54.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Kansas -20.5 · W
TotalMatrix 54.5 / Market 51.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 13–42 · Final 0–55
Recorded pregame market
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL9–14Pregame Matrix 27–27
FavoriteNavy
Model Win Prob50%
Model Margin0.0
Model Total54.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Navy +1.5 · L
TotalMatrix 54.5 / Market 46.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 27–27 · Final 9–14
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL37–26Pregame Matrix 35–15
FavoriteNotre Dame
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin20.2
Model Total50.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix North Carolina +22.5 · W
TotalMatrix 50.2 / Market 49.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 35–15 · Final 37–26
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL3–57Pregame Matrix 18–28
FavoriteWake Forest
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.1
Model Total46.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Stanford +12.5 · L
TotalMatrix 46.1 / Market 54.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–28 · Final 3–57
Recorded pregame market
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL42–41Pregame Matrix 29–22
FavoriteSyracuse
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.7
Model Total50.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Syracuse -5.5 · L
TotalMatrix 50.6 / Market 52.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–22 · Final 42–41
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL17–27Pregame Matrix 20–30
FavoriteHouston
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.7
Model Total50.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix UCF +10.5 · W
TotalMatrix 50.1 / Market 51.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 20–30 · Final 17–27
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL42–45Pregame Matrix 23–25
FavoriteIowa State
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.7
Model Total48.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Iowa State -1.5 · W
TotalMatrix 48.2 / Market 53.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 23–25 · Final 42–45
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 12:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL3–31Pregame Matrix 21–24
FavoriteWisconsin
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.8
Model Total44.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Michigan State +10 · L
TotalMatrix 44.8 / Market 44.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–24 · Final 3–31
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 12:45 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL14–38Pregame Matrix 17–38
FavoriteGeorgia
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin21.3
Model Total54.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Vanderbilt +25.5 · W
TotalMatrix 54.5 / Market 54.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 17–38 · Final 14–38
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL20–17Pregame Matrix 23–20
FavoriteWestern Michigan
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.6
Model Total43.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Buffalo +16.5 · W
TotalMatrix 43.3 / Market 50.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 23–20 · Final 20–17
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 2:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL39–24Pregame Matrix 29–17
FavoriteToledo
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.5
Model Total46.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Ball State +17.5 · W
TotalMatrix 46.5 / Market 51.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–17 · Final 39–24
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL17–41Pregame Matrix 19–27
FavoriteCentral Michigan
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.7
Model Total45.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Central Michigan -5.5 · W
TotalMatrix 45.4 / Market 46.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–27 · Final 17–41
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL14–24Pregame Matrix 25–30
FavoriteTennessee
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.5
Model Total54.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Auburn +7.5 · L
TotalMatrix 54.7 / Market 55.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 25–30 · Final 14–24
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL24–20Pregame Matrix 15–28
FavoriteMiami (OH)
Model Win Prob81%
Model Margin13.2
Model Total42.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Bowling Green +15.5 · W
TotalMatrix 42.2 / Market 47.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 15–28 · Final 24–20
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL31–39Pregame Matrix 29–29
FavoriteUNLV
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.2
Model Total58.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix California +1.5 · L
TotalMatrix 58.6 / Market 52.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–29 · Final 31–39
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL38–14Pregame Matrix 30–20
FavoriteEastern Michigan
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.2
Model Total49.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Eastern Michigan +4 · W
TotalMatrix 49.8 / Market 48.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–20 · Final 38–14
Recorded pregame market
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL17–45Pregame Matrix 24–25
FavoriteMissouri
Model Win Prob52%
Model Margin0.6
Model Total48.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Missouri +5.5 · W
TotalMatrix 48.5 / Market 56.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–25 · Final 17–45
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL28–31Pregame Matrix 29–25
FavoriteLouisville
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.8
Model Total54.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix NC State +6 · W
TotalMatrix 54.0 / Market 59.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 29–25 · Final 28–31
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 11:00 AM EDTFINAL
FINAL59–8Pregame Matrix 43–14
FavoriteMemphis
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin28.4
Model Total56.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Memphis -21.5 · W
TotalMatrix 56.7 / Market 54.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 43–14 · Final 59–8
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL13–10Pregame Matrix 24–20
FavoriteOhio
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin4.0
Model Total44.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Kent State +5.5 · W
TotalMatrix 44.6 / Market 52.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–20 · Final 13–10
Recorded pregame market
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL31–14Pregame Matrix 31–16
FavoriteOhio State
Model Win Prob84%
Model Margin15.1
Model Total47.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Ohio State -14.5 · W
TotalMatrix 47.6 / Market 44.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–16 · Final 31–14
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL10–42Pregame Matrix 33–20
FavoriteOld Dominion
Model Win Prob81%
Model Margin13.1
Model Total52.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Old Dominion -1.5 · L
TotalMatrix 52.3 / Market 52.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 33–20 · Final 10–42
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
SSamfordFCS / Other
FINAL14–33Pregame Matrix 30–26
FavoriteSamford
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.8
Model Total55.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix — · NO MARKET
TotalMatrix 55.5 / Market — · NO MARKET
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 30–26 · Final 14–33
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL7–38Pregame Matrix 22–26
FavoriteFlorida State
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.4
Model Total48.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Florida State +3 · W
TotalMatrix 48.5 / Market 51.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 22–26 · Final 7–38
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL0–28Pregame Matrix 16–28
FavoriteNorth Dakota State
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.8
Model Total44.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Wyoming +20.5 · L
TotalMatrix 44.6 / Market 47.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 16–28 · Final 0–28
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 3:45 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL17–45Pregame Matrix 24–35
FavoriteJames Madison
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.0
Model Total58.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Marshall +15.5 · L
TotalMatrix 58.6 / Market 56.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–35 · Final 17–45
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL23–48Pregame Matrix 21–29
FavoriteNebraska
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.9
Model Total50.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Maryland +13.5 · L
TotalMatrix 50.0 / Market 52.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–29 · Final 23–48
Recorded pregame market
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
SAT OCT 3 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL7–61Pregame Matrix 12–38
FavoriteNew Mexico
Model Win Prob96%
Model Margin25.6
Model Total50.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix New Mexico -21 · W
TotalMatrix 50.0 / Market 50.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 12–38 · Final 7–61
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 4:15 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL35–34Pregame Matrix 20–28
FavoriteSouth Carolina
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.8
Model Total47.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix South Carolina -3.5 · L
TotalMatrix 47.9 / Market 52.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 20–28 · Final 35–34
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 4:15 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL24–17Pregame Matrix 20–34
FavoriteIllinois
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.5
Model Total54.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Illinois -10 · L
TotalMatrix 54.0 / Market 60.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 20–34 · Final 24–17
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL56–26Pregame Matrix 24–23
FavoriteOregon State
Model Win Prob50%
Model Margin0.2
Model Total47.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Colorado State +4 · L
TotalMatrix 47.0 / Market 59.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–23 · Final 56–26
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
TSTexas SouthernFCS / Other
FINAL10–66Pregame Matrix 20–38
FavoriteFlorida Atlantic
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.4
Model Total57.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix — · NO MARKET
TotalMatrix 57.7 / Market — · NO MARKET
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 20–38 · Final 10–66
Recorded pregame market
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
Week 5
SAT OCT 3 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL7–34Pregame Matrix 19–40
FavoriteTexas A&M
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin21.1
Model Total59.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Texas A&M -14.5 · W
TotalMatrix 59.4 / Market 51.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–40 · Final 7–34
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL17–10Pregame Matrix 29–24
FavoriteBYU
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.1
Model Total52.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix TCU +6.5 · L
TotalMatrix 52.3 / Market 51.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–24 · Final 17–10
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL31–24Pregame Matrix 29–26
FavoriteGeorgia Southern
Model Win Prob59%
Model Margin3.5
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Georgia Southern -1.5 · W
TotalMatrix 55.3 / Market 52.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–26 · Final 31–24
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL35–52Pregame Matrix 21–35
FavoriteSouth Alabama
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.7
Model Total55.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix UL Monroe +14.5 · L
TotalMatrix 55.4 / Market 55.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–35 · Final 35–52
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL16–14Pregame Matrix 33–23
FavoriteUTSA
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin10.9
Model Total56.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Rice +11.5 · W
TotalMatrix 56.0 / Market 54.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 33–23 · Final 16–14
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL29–31Pregame Matrix 28–25
FavoriteArmy
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.8
Model Total52.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Louisiana Tech +3.5 · W
TotalMatrix 52.6 / Market 44.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 28–25 · Final 29–31
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL41–13Pregame Matrix 28–18
FavoriteMiami (FL)
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.6
Model Total46.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Clemson +17.5 · L
TotalMatrix 46.3 / Market 51.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 28–18 · Final 41–13
Recorded pregame market
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL17–13Pregame Matrix 25–33
FavoriteSouth Florida
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.5
Model Total58.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix South Florida -6 · L
TotalMatrix 58.1 / Market 51.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 25–33 · Final 17–13
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL29–7Pregame Matrix 35–16
FavoriteTexas Tech
Model Win Prob90%
Model Margin19.5
Model Total50.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Texas Tech -14.5 · W
TotalMatrix 50.7 / Market 50.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 35–16 · Final 29–7
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL18–37Pregame Matrix 18–36
FavoriteBoise State
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.5
Model Total53.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Utah State +21 · W
TotalMatrix 53.7 / Market 49.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–36 · Final 18–37
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL21–25Pregame Matrix 23–31
FavoriteUSC
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin8.0
Model Total53.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Washington +9.5 · W
TotalMatrix 53.9 / Market 55.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 23–31 · Final 21–25
Recorded pregame market
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
SAT OCT 3 · 7:45 PM EDTFINAL
MMcNeeseFCS / Other
FINAL14–63Pregame Matrix 3–45
FavoriteLSU
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin43.5
Model Total48.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix — · NO MARKET
TotalMatrix 48.7 / Market — · NO MARKET
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 3–45 · Final 14–63
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL20–23Pregame Matrix 28–30
FavoriteLouisiana
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.6
Model Total58.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Arkansas State +4.5 · W
TotalMatrix 58.4 / Market 49.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 28–30 · Final 20–23
Recorded pregame market
Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium
SAT OCT 3 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL47–15Pregame Matrix 40–15
FavoriteIndiana
Model Win Prob95%
Model Margin25.4
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Indiana -23.5 · W
TotalMatrix 55.3 / Market 54.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 40–15 · Final 47–15
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 9:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL26–6Pregame Matrix 22–21
FavoriteFresno State
Model Win Prob52%
Model Margin0.7
Model Total43.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Fresno State +1.5 · W
TotalMatrix 43.1 / Market 45.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 22–21 · Final 26–6
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL55–19Pregame Matrix 25–30
FavoriteArizona State
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.4
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Arizona State -4 · L
TotalMatrix 55.3 / Market 51.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 25–30 · Final 55–19
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL29–31Pregame Matrix 27–32
FavoriteSan Diego State
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.4
Model Total59.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix San Diego State +4.5 · W
TotalMatrix 59.5 / Market 60.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 27–32 · Final 29–31
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 11:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL7–34Pregame Matrix 22–31
FavoriteArizona
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.0
Model Total53.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Arizona -7 · W
TotalMatrix 53.8 / Market 54.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 22–31 · Final 7–34
Recorded pregame market
SAT OCT 3 · 11:59 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL20–16Pregame Matrix 20–34
FavoriteHawaii
Model Win Prob81%
Model Margin13.3
Model Total54.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Hawaii -4.5 · L
TotalMatrix 54.2 / Market 52.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 20–34 · Final 20–16
Recorded pregame market
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
THU SEP 24 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL34–17Pregame Matrix 31–26
FavoriteLiberty
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.0
Model Total56.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Liberty -5.0Market Liberty -2.5Gap 2.5 ptsResult WIN · Liberty -2.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.8Market O/U 50.5Gap 6.3 ptsResult WIN · OVER 50.5
WinnerPrediction Liberty · 63%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–26Final 34–17 · 5.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
FRI SEP 25 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL21–17Pregame Matrix 30–26
FavoriteArmy
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.7
Model Total55.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Army -3.7Market Army -3.0Gap 0.7 ptsResult WIN · Army -3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.9Market O/U 48.5Gap 7.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Army · 60%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–26Final 21–17 · 17.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
FRI SEP 25 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
HHowardFCS / Other
FINAL7–58Pregame Matrix 15–40
FavoriteRutgers
Model Win Prob95%
Model Margin25.1
Model Total55.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Rutgers -25.1Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.6Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Rutgers · 95%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 15–40Final 7–58 · 9.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
FRI SEP 25 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL20–24Pregame Matrix 37–21
FavoriteNavy
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.1
Model Total57.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Navy -16.1Market Navy -7.0Gap 9.1 ptsResult LOSS · Navy -7.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.3Market O/U 51.5Gap 5.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 51.5
WinnerPrediction Navy · 86%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 37–21Final 20–24 · 13.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
FRI SEP 25 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL23–29Pregame Matrix 13–35
FavoriteIndiana
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin22.0
Model Total47.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Indiana -22.0Market Indiana -21.0Gap 1.0 ptsResult LOSS · Indiana -21.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.4Market O/U 49.5Gap 2.1 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 49.5
WinnerPrediction Indiana · 93%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 13–35Final 23–29 · 4.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
FRI SEP 25 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL24–10Pregame Matrix 28–23
FavoriteClemson
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.0
Model Total50.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Clemson -5.0Market California -1.5Gap 6.5 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · Clemson +1.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.1Market O/U 50.5Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 50.5
WinnerPrediction Clemson · 63%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 28–23Final 24–10 · 16.1 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
California Memorial Stadium
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL13–26Pregame Matrix 21–29
FavoriteKent State
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin8.0
Model Total50.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Kent State -8.0Market Kent State -3.5Gap 4.5 ptsResult WIN · Kent State -3.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.0Market O/U 51.5Gap 1.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 51.5
WinnerPrediction Kent State · 70%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–29Final 13–26 · 11.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
BBucknellFCS / Other
FINAL0–59Pregame Matrix 9–44
FavoritePittsburgh
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin35.5
Model Total53.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Pittsburgh -35.5Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.2Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Pittsburgh · 99%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 9–44Final 0–59 · 5.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL13–23Pregame Matrix 24–32
FavoriteBaylor
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.6
Model Total56.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Baylor -7.6Market Baylor -10.0Gap 2.4 ptsResult PUSH · Colorado +10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.0Market O/U 55.5Gap 0.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Baylor · 69%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–32Final 13–23 · 20.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL45–59Pregame Matrix 23–31
FavoriteUTSA
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.4
Model Total53.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UTSA -8.4Market UTSA -13.5Gap 5.1 ptsResult LOSS · Colorado State +13.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.9Market O/U 58.5Gap 4.6 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 58.5
WinnerPrediction UTSA · 71%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 23–31Final 45–59 · 50.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL19–42Pregame Matrix 13–38
FavoriteOhio State
Model Win Prob95%
Model Margin25.3
Model Total51.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Ohio State -25.3Market Ohio State -27.5Gap 2.2 ptsResult WIN · Illinois +27.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.6Market O/U 54.5Gap 2.9 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 54.5
WinnerPrediction Ohio State · 95%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 13–38Final 19–42 · 9.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL14–49Pregame Matrix 5–47
FavoriteTexas Tech
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin48.7
Model Total52.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas Tech -48.7Market Texas Tech -34.5Gap 14.2 ptsResult WIN · Texas Tech -34.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.9Market O/U 55.5Gap 2.6 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Texas Tech · 100%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 5–47Final 14–49 · 10.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL16–41Pregame Matrix 26–19
FavoriteSan Diego State
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.7
Model Total45.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: San Diego State -6.7Market Toledo -3.0Gap 9.7 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · San Diego State +3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 45.5Market O/U 52.5Gap 7.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 52.5
WinnerPrediction San Diego State · 67%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 26–19Final 16–41 · 11.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL20–17Pregame Matrix 33–25
FavoriteTexas
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.6
Model Total57.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas -7.6Market Texas -4.5Gap 3.1 ptsResult LOSS · Texas -4.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.4Market O/U 55.5Gap 1.9 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Texas · 69%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 33–25Final 20–17 · 20.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL38–10Pregame Matrix 35–17
FavoriteUNLV
Model Win Prob89%
Model Margin18.1
Model Total52.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UNLV -18.1Market UNLV -13.5Gap 4.6 ptsResult WIN · UNLV -13.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.5Market O/U 52.5Gap 0.0 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 52.5
WinnerPrediction UNLV · 89%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 35–17Final 38–10 · 4.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL21–14Pregame Matrix 32–22
FavoriteVirginia Tech
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.9
Model Total53.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Virginia Tech -9.9Market Virginia Tech -14.0Gap 4.1 ptsResult WIN · Boston College +14.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.4Market O/U 48.5Gap 4.9 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Virginia Tech · 74%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 32–22Final 21–14 · 18.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL30–27Pregame Matrix 19–29
FavoriteLouisville
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.6
Model Total48.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Louisville -9.6Market Louisville -12.5Gap 2.9 ptsResult WIN · Wake Forest +12.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.1Market O/U 58.5Gap 10.4 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 58.5
WinnerPrediction Louisville · 74%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 19–29Final 30–27 · 8.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
SAT SEP 26 · 12:45 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL21–45Pregame Matrix 17–36
FavoriteKentucky
Model Win Prob90%
Model Margin19.2
Model Total52.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Kentucky -19.2Market Kentucky -20.5Gap 1.3 ptsResult LOSS · South Alabama +20.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.7Market O/U 54.5Gap 1.8 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 54.5
WinnerPrediction Kentucky · 90%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 17–36Final 21–45 · 13.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
LLindenwoodFCS / Other
FINAL3–29Pregame Matrix 24–27
FavoriteEastern Michigan
Model Win Prob56%
Model Margin2.2
Model Total50.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Eastern Michigan -2.2Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.9Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Eastern Michigan · 56%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–27Final 3–29 · 18.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 1:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL54–3Pregame Matrix 26–26
FavoriteUCLA
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.5
Model Total52.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UCLA -0.5Market UCLA -1.5Gap 1.0 ptsResult LOSS · Maryland +1.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.5Market O/U 56.5Gap 4.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 56.5
WinnerPrediction UCLA · 51%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 26–26Final 54–3 · 4.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 2:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL14–35Pregame Matrix 26–26
FavoriteNorthern Illinois
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.5
Model Total52.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Northern Illinois -0.5Market Georgia State -10.0Gap 10.5 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Northern Illinois +10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.4Market O/U 55.5Gap 3.1 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Northern Illinois · 51%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 26–26Final 14–35 · 3.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Center Parc Stadium
Week 4MATRIX FAVORITE FLIPKey Signal · Northern Illinois +10Open Game Lab SAT SEP 26 · 2:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL49–10Pregame Matrix 41–14
FavoriteNotre Dame
Model Win Prob96%
Model Margin27.1
Model Total54.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Notre Dame -27.1Market Notre Dame -27.5Gap 0.4 ptsResult LOSS · Purdue +27.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.5Market O/U 58.5Gap 4.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 58.5
WinnerPrediction Notre Dame · 96%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 41–14Final 49–10 · 4.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:00 PM EDTFINAL
CACentral ArkansasFCS / Other
FINAL7–34Pregame Matrix 14–37
FavoriteFlorida State
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin22.5
Model Total51.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Florida State -22.5Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.3Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Florida State · 93%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 14–37Final 7–34 · 10.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Doak Campbell Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 3:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL10–27Pregame Matrix 26–22
FavoriteHawaii
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin4.0
Model Total47.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Hawaii -4.0Market Hawaii -3.0Gap 1.0 ptsResult LOSS · Hawaii -3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.6Market O/U 44.5Gap 3.1 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 44.5
WinnerPrediction Hawaii · 60%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 26–22Final 10–27 · 10.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL32–7Pregame Matrix 30–19
FavoriteBoise State
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.7
Model Total48.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Boise State -10.7Market Boise State -7.0Gap 3.7 ptsResult WIN · Boise State -7.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.4Market O/U 50.5Gap 2.1 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 50.5
WinnerPrediction Boise State · 76%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–19Final 32–7 · 9.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
GGardner-WebbFCS / Other
FINAL35–36Pregame Matrix 24–35
FavoriteMarshall
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.2
Model Total58.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Marshall -11.2Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 58.7Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Marshall · 77%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–35Final 35–36 · 12.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL20–19Pregame Matrix 21–26
FavoriteMichigan
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.6
Model Total47.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Michigan -5.6Market Michigan -5.5Gap 0.1 ptsResult LOSS · Michigan -5.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.1Market O/U 38.5Gap 8.6 ptsResult WIN · OVER 38.5
WinnerPrediction Michigan · 65%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 21–26Final 20–19 · 8.1 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL42–18Pregame Matrix 33–17
FavoriteNew Mexico
Model Win Prob85%
Model Margin15.8
Model Total50.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: New Mexico -15.8Market New Mexico -11.5Gap 4.3 ptsResult WIN · New Mexico -11.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.6Market O/U 48.5Gap 2.1 ptsResult WIN · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction New Mexico · 85%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 33–17Final 42–18 · 9.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL13–41Pregame Matrix 19–30
FavoriteGeorgia
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.8
Model Total48.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Georgia -10.8Market Georgia -14.0Gap 3.2 ptsResult LOSS · Oklahoma +14.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.7Market O/U 44.5Gap 4.2 ptsResult WIN · OVER 44.5
WinnerPrediction Georgia · 76%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–30Final 13–41 · 5.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL28–52Pregame Matrix 25–26
FavoriteFlorida
Model Win Prob53%
Model Margin1.0
Model Total52.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Florida -1.0Market Florida -3.0Gap 2.0 ptsResult LOSS · Ole Miss +3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.0Market O/U 58.5Gap 6.5 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 58.5
WinnerPrediction Florida · 53%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 25–26Final 28–52 · 28.0 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
RMRobert MorrisFCS / Other
FINAL28–31Pregame Matrix 19–28
FavoriteBuffalo
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.1
Model Total47.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Buffalo -9.1Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.4Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Buffalo · 73%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–28Final 28–31 · 11.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
SStonehillFCS / Other
FINAL7–35Pregame Matrix 18–27
FavoriteOhio
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.9
Model Total44.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Ohio -8.9Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 44.8Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Ohio · 72%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–27Final 7–35 · 2.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL13–21Pregame Matrix 27–22
FavoriteTCU
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.8
Model Total49.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: TCU -4.8Market TCU -3.0Gap 1.8 ptsResult LOSS · TCU -3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.3Market O/U 48.5Gap 0.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction TCU · 62%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 27–22Final 13–21 · 15.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL21–24Pregame Matrix 20–28
FavoriteMiami (OH)
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.3
Model Total47.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Miami (OH) -8.3Market Miami (OH) -3.5Gap 4.8 ptsResult LOSS · Miami (OH) -3.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.8Market O/U 51.5Gap 3.7 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 51.5
WinnerPrediction Miami (OH) · 71%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 20–28Final 21–24 · 2.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL31–17Pregame Matrix 30–20
FavoriteUtah
Model Win Prob75%
Model Margin10.2
Model Total50.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Utah -10.2Market Utah -8.5Gap 1.7 ptsResult WIN · Utah -8.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.0Market O/U 48.5Gap 1.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Utah · 75%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–20Final 31–17 · 2.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
W&William & MaryFCS / Other
FINAL7–62Pregame Matrix 19–37
FavoriteDuke
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.8
Model Total56.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Duke -17.8Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.6Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Duke · 88%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–37Final 7–62 · 12.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Wallace Wade Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL42–28Pregame Matrix 36–19
FavoriteHouston
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.1
Model Total54.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Houston -16.1Market Houston -18.5Gap 2.4 ptsResult WIN · Georgia Southern +18.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.9Market O/U 56.5Gap 1.6 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 56.5
WinnerPrediction Houston · 86%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 36–19Final 42–28 · 15.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
NCNorth Carolina CentralFCS / Other
FINAL9–42Pregame Matrix 20–31
FavoriteEast Carolina
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.7
Model Total51.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: East Carolina -11.7Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.1Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction East Carolina · 78%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 20–31Final 9–42 · 0.1 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 4:15 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL15–21Pregame Matrix 23–29
FavoriteAuburn
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.8
Model Total52.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Auburn -5.8Market Auburn -9.5Gap 3.7 ptsResult WIN · Vanderbilt +9.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.5Market O/U 54.5Gap 2.0 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 54.5
WinnerPrediction Auburn · 65%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 23–29Final 15–21 · 16.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 5:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL31–13Pregame Matrix 30–22
FavoriteNebraska
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.3
Model Total51.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Nebraska -7.3Market Nebraska -5.5Gap 1.8 ptsResult WIN · Nebraska -5.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.7Market O/U 48.5Gap 3.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Nebraska · 69%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–22Final 31–13 · 7.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 5:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL14–6Pregame Matrix 30–20
FavoriteSouth Florida
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.4
Model Total50.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: South Florida -10.4Market South Florida -17.5Gap 7.1 ptsResult WIN · Bowling Green +17.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.2Market O/U 48.5Gap 1.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction South Florida · 76%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–20Final 14–6 · 30.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 5:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL24–20Pregame Matrix 14–30
FavoritePenn State
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.1
Model Total44.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Penn State -16.1Market Penn State -10.0Gap 6.1 ptsResult LOSS · Penn State -10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 44.3Market O/U 44.5Gap 0.2 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 44.5
WinnerPrediction Penn State · 86%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 14–30Final 24–20 · 0.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL3–42Pregame Matrix 16–36
FavoriteVirginia
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin19.7
Model Total52.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Virginia -19.7Market Virginia -19.5Gap 0.2 ptsResult WIN · Virginia -19.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.7Market O/U 52.5Gap 0.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 52.5
WinnerPrediction Virginia · 91%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 16–36Final 3–42 · 7.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
IWIncarnate WordFCS / Other
FINAL10–63Pregame Matrix 29–34
FavoriteTexas State
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.7
Model Total62.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas State -4.7Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 62.4Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Texas State · 62%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–34Final 10–63 · 10.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL46–20Pregame Matrix 25–23
FavoriteJames Madison
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin1.7
Model Total48.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: James Madison -1.7Market James Madison -6.0Gap 4.3 ptsResult LOSS · Old Dominion +6.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.2Market O/U 44.5Gap 3.7 ptsResult WIN · OVER 44.5
WinnerPrediction James Madison · 55%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 25–23Final 46–20 · 17.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
LILong Island UniversityFCS / Other
FINAL3–20Pregame Matrix 21–33
FavoriteFlorida International
Model Win Prob79%
Model Margin12.1
Model Total54.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Florida International -12.1Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.0Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Florida International · 79%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–33Final 3–20 · 31.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 6:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL3–52Pregame Matrix 4–43
FavoriteMiami (FL)
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin39.3
Model Total47.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Miami (FL) -39.3Market Miami (FL) -41.5Gap 2.2 ptsResult LOSS · Central Michigan +41.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.6Market O/U 53.5Gap 5.9 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 53.5
WinnerPrediction Miami (FL) · 100%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 4–43Final 3–52 · 7.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 6:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL34–7Pregame Matrix 39–18
FavoriteLouisiana
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin20.4
Model Total57.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Louisiana -20.4Market Louisiana -10.0Gap 10.4 ptsResult WIN · Louisiana -10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.2Market O/U 48.5Gap 8.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Louisiana · 91%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 39–18Final 34–7 · 16.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL26–31Pregame Matrix 30–26
FavoriteKansas State
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.6
Model Total55.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Kansas State -4.6Market Kansas State -6.5Gap 1.9 ptsResult WIN · Cincinnati +6.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.9Market O/U 55.5Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Kansas State · 62%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 30–26Final 26–31 · 1.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL14–17Pregame Matrix 25–29
FavoriteArkansas State
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.3
Model Total54.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Arkansas State -4.3Market Arkansas State -6.5Gap 2.2 ptsResult WIN · Kennesaw State +6.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.6Market O/U 52.5Gap 2.1 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 52.5
WinnerPrediction Arkansas State · 61%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 25–29Final 14–17 · 23.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
MMercyhurstFCS / Other
FINAL7–52Pregame Matrix 19–36
FavoriteWestern Kentucky
Model Win Prob87%
Model Margin16.6
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Western Kentucky -16.6Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.3Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Western Kentucky · 87%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–36Final 7–52 · 3.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL13–23Pregame Matrix 18–38
FavoriteJacksonville State
Model Win Prob90%
Model Margin19.5
Model Total55.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Jacksonville State -19.5Market Jacksonville State -7.0Gap 12.5 ptsResult WIN · Jacksonville State -7.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.9Market O/U 51.5Gap 4.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 51.5
WinnerPrediction Jacksonville State · 90%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–38Final 13–23 · 19.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL41–24Pregame Matrix 29–24
FavoriteOklahoma State
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.3
Model Total53.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oklahoma State -5.3Market West Virginia -1.5Gap 6.8 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · Oklahoma State +1.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.1Market O/U 60.5Gap 7.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 60.5
WinnerPrediction Oklahoma State · 64%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–24Final 41–24 · 11.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL18–49Pregame Matrix 18–28
FavoriteAlabama
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.8
Model Total46.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Alabama -9.8Market Alabama -12.5Gap 2.7 ptsResult LOSS · South Carolina +12.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 46.0Market O/U 53.5Gap 7.5 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 53.5
WinnerPrediction Alabama · 74%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–28Final 18–49 · 21.0 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL21–24Pregame Matrix 16–37
FavoriteTulane
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin20.9
Model Total53.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Tulane -20.9Market Tulane -18.5Gap 2.4 ptsResult LOSS · Tulane -18.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.3Market O/U 52.5Gap 0.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 52.5
WinnerPrediction Tulane · 92%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 16–37Final 21–24 · 8.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL31–41Pregame Matrix 19–37
FavoriteNC State
Model Win Prob89%
Model Margin18.8
Model Total55.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: NC State -18.8Market NC State -14.0Gap 4.8 ptsResult LOSS · NC State -14.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.9Market O/U 55.5Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 55.5
WinnerPrediction NC State · 89%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–37Final 31–41 · 16.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL34–24Pregame Matrix 31–17
FavoriteArizona
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.5
Model Total48.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Arizona -13.5Market Arizona -10.0Gap 3.5 ptsResult PUSH · Arizona -10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.2Market O/U 48.5Gap 0.3 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Arizona · 82%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–17Final 34–24 · 9.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
HCHouston ChristianFCS / Other
FINAL14–63Pregame Matrix 21–35
FavoriteNorth Texas
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin14.0
Model Total56.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: North Texas -14.0Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.1Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction North Texas · 82%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–35Final 14–63 · 20.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL41–27Pregame Matrix 31–26
FavoriteOregon
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.8
Model Total56.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oregon -4.8Market Oregon -3.0Gap 1.8 ptsResult WIN · Oregon -3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.6Market O/U 62.5Gap 5.9 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 62.5
WinnerPrediction Oregon · 62%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–26Final 41–27 · 11.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL6–35Pregame Matrix 22–28
FavoriteLSU
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.0
Model Total50.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: LSU -6.0Market LSU -8.5Gap 2.5 ptsResult LOSS · Texas A&M +8.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.4Market O/U 51.5Gap 1.1 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 51.5
WinnerPrediction LSU · 66%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 22–28Final 6–35 · 9.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL10–21Pregame Matrix 26–28
FavoriteUtah State
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.5
Model Total53.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Utah State -1.5Market Utah State -3.0Gap 1.5 ptsResult LOSS · Troy +3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.9Market O/U 47.5Gap 6.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 47.5
WinnerPrediction Utah State · 54%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 26–28Final 10–21 · 22.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 7:45 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL24–31Pregame Matrix 30–25
FavoriteMissouri
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.0
Model Total54.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Missouri -5.0Market Mississippi State -6.5Gap 11.5 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Missouri +6.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.5Market O/U 58.5Gap 4.0 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 58.5
WinnerPrediction Missouri · 63%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 30–25Final 24–31 · 0.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL45–17Pregame Matrix 37–21
FavoriteFlorida Atlantic
Model Win Prob87%
Model Margin16.9
Model Total57.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Florida Atlantic -16.9Market Florida Atlantic -13.5Gap 3.4 ptsResult WIN · Florida Atlantic -13.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.9Market O/U 57.5Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 57.5
WinnerPrediction Florida Atlantic · 87%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 37–21Final 45–17 · 4.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL6–34Pregame Matrix 24–35
FavoriteArkansas
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.1
Model Total59.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Arkansas -11.1Market Arkansas -7.0Gap 4.1 ptsResult WIN · Arkansas -7.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 59.8Market O/U 50.5Gap 9.3 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 50.5
WinnerPrediction Arkansas · 77%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–35Final 6–34 · 19.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
SAT SEP 26 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL35–6Pregame Matrix 22–29
FavoriteSacramento State
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.6
Model Total51.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Sacramento State -7.6Market Massachusetts -4.5Gap 12.1 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Sacramento State +4.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.3Market O/U 48.5Gap 2.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Sacramento State · 69%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 22–29Final 35–6 · 10.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL24–34Pregame Matrix 10–43
FavoriteSMU
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin33.5
Model Total52.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: SMU -33.5Market SMU -34.5Gap 1.0 ptsResult WIN · Missouri State +34.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.6Market O/U 59.5Gap 6.9 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 59.5
WinnerPrediction SMU · 99%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 10–43Final 24–34 · 5.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL33–7Pregame Matrix 30–18
FavoriteOregon State
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.6
Model Total48.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oregon State -12.6Market Oregon State -10.5Gap 2.1 ptsResult WIN · Oregon State -10.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.2Market O/U 55.5Gap 7.3 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Oregon State · 80%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–18Final 33–7 · 8.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 10:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL24–38Pregame Matrix 16–30
FavoriteFresno State
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.8
Model Total45.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Fresno State -13.8Market Fresno State -13.5Gap 0.3 ptsResult WIN · Fresno State -13.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 45.2Market O/U 44.5Gap 0.7 ptsResult WIN · OVER 44.5
WinnerPrediction Fresno State · 82%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 16–30Final 24–38 · 16.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Valley Children's Stadium
SAT SEP 26 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL36–33Pregame Matrix 28–23
FavoriteAir Force
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.2
Model Total50.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Air Force -5.2Market Air Force -5.5Gap 0.3 ptsResult WIN · Nevada +5.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.4Market O/U 49.5Gap 0.9 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
WinnerPrediction Air Force · 64%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 28–23Final 36–33 · 18.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL27–34Pregame Matrix 27–22
FavoriteGeorgia Tech
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.5
Model Total49.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Georgia Tech -5.5Market Georgia Tech -3.5Gap 2.0 ptsResult LOSS · Georgia Tech -3.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.4Market O/U 48.5Gap 0.9 ptsResult WIN · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Georgia Tech · 64%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 27–22Final 27–34 · 11.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SAT SEP 26 · 11:00 PM EDTFINAL
FINAL27–24Pregame Matrix 17–30
FavoriteWashington
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.4
Model Total46.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Washington -12.4Market Washington -10.0Gap 2.4 ptsResult LOSS · Washington -10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 46.9Market O/U 45.5Gap 1.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 45.5
WinnerPrediction Washington · 80%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 17–30Final 27–24 · 4.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
THU SEP 17 · 7:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL13–27Pregame Matrix 19–32
FavoritePittsburgh
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.5
Model Total51.3
FRI SEP 18 · 7:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL33–20Pregame Matrix 31–15
FavoriteMiami (FL)
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.2
Model Total46.8
FRI SEP 18 · 8:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL26–28Pregame Matrix 19–34
FavoriteTexas Tech
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.4
Model Total52.8
FRI SEP 18 · 10:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL0–84Pregame Matrix 5–47
FavoriteOregon
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin50.0
Model Total52.9
SAT SEP 19 · 11:30 AM ETFINAL
FINAL14–22Pregame Matrix 26–31
FavoriteDelaware
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin4.9
Model Total57.6
SAT SEP 19 · 12:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL7–41Pregame Matrix 10–35
FavoriteMinnesota
Model Win Prob95%
Model Margin25.1
Model Total44.7
SAT SEP 19 · 12:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL24–17Pregame Matrix 27–25
FavoriteArizona State
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.8
Model Total52.1
SAT SEP 19 · 12:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL7–55Pregame Matrix 13–30
FavoriteIowa State
Model Win Prob87%
Model Margin17.2
Model Total43.5
SAT SEP 19 · 12:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL13–55Pregame Matrix 9–39
FavoritePenn State
Model Win Prob98%
Model Margin29.9
Model Total47.1
SAT SEP 19 · 12:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL45–17Pregame Matrix 41–17
FavoriteGeorgia
Model Win Prob94%
Model Margin23.8
Model Total57.9
SAT SEP 19 · 12:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL3–59Pregame Matrix 4–46
FavoriteOhio State
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin53.9
Model Total50.0
SAT SEP 19 · 12:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL11–44Pregame Matrix 18–34
FavoriteGeorgia Tech
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin15.9
Model Total52.1
SAT SEP 19 · 12:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL20–28Pregame Matrix 18–25
FavoriteClemson
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin7.1
Model Total43.2
SAT SEP 19 · 12:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL35–49Pregame Matrix 30–37
FavoriteTexas State
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin7.1
Model Total66.8
SAT SEP 19 · 12:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL20–31Pregame Matrix 18–36
FavoriteKansas State
Model Win Prob89%
Model Margin18.1
Model Total53.4
SAT SEP 19 · 12:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL10–54Pregame Matrix 11–32
FavoriteWisconsin
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin20.7
Model Total43.6
SAT SEP 19 · 12:45 PM ETFINAL SIGNAL
FINAL31–35Pregame Matrix 25–32
FavoriteVanderbilt
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.6
Model Total57.0
SAT SEP 19 · 1:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL10–24Pregame Matrix 22–20
FavoriteWyoming
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin1.9
Model Total42.8
SAT SEP 19 · 2:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL16–22Pregame Matrix 18–34
FavoriteBoston College
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.0
Model Total52.4
SAT SEP 19 · 2:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL10–48Pregame Matrix 17–36
FavoriteIllinois
Model Win Prob90%
Model Margin19.1
Model Total53.3
SAT SEP 19 · 3:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL48–49Pregame Matrix 26–25
FavoriteTemple
Model Win Prob52%
Model Margin0.8
Model Total51.7
SAT SEP 19 · 3:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL7–48Pregame Matrix 16–32
FavoriteWashington State
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.0
Model Total48.1
SAT SEP 19 · 3:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL36–50Pregame Matrix 16–30
FavoriteAlabama
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.7
Model Total46.2
SAT SEP 19 · 3:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL31–21Pregame Matrix 15–35
FavoriteTexas A&M
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin19.9
Model Total50.5
SAT SEP 19 · 3:30 PM ETFINAL SIGNAL
FINAL31–35Pregame Matrix 19–29
FavoriteCincinnati
Model Win Prob75%
Model Margin10.0
Model Total48.9
SAT SEP 19 · 3:30 PM ETFINAL SIGNAL
FINAL31–41Pregame Matrix 26–27
FavoriteLouisville
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.3
Model Total52.4
SAT SEP 19 · 3:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL14–36Pregame Matrix 29–22
FavoriteStonehill
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.5
Model Total50.9
SAT SEP 19 · 3:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL42–35Pregame Matrix 39–20
FavoriteUSC
Model Win Prob89%
Model Margin18.8
Model Total59.3
SAT SEP 19 · 3:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL17–52Pregame Matrix 5–44
FavoriteMichigan
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin39.0
Model Total48.4
SAT SEP 19 · 3:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL0–33Pregame Matrix 16–39
FavoriteUtah
Model Win Prob94%
Model Margin22.9
Model Total54.8
SAT SEP 19 · 3:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL7–49Pregame Matrix 12–42
FavoriteCalifornia
Model Win Prob98%
Model Margin30.2
Model Total54.0
SAT SEP 19 · 4:00 PM ETFINAL SIGNAL
FINAL15–51Pregame Matrix 16–37
FavoriteLiberty
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin21.0
Model Total53.2
SAT SEP 19 · 4:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL19–36Pregame Matrix 22–36
FavoriteBaylor
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.2
Model Total57.2
SAT SEP 19 · 4:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL0–55Pregame Matrix 10–39
FavoriteIowa
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin28.3
Model Total49.2
SAT SEP 19 · 4:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL7–35Pregame Matrix 21–33
FavoriteDuke
Model Win Prob79%
Model Margin12.2
Model Total53.8
SAT SEP 19 · 4:00 PM ETFINAL SIGNAL
FINAL0–38Pregame Matrix 9–46
FavoriteIndiana
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin36.4
Model Total54.9
SAT SEP 19 · 4:15 PM ETFINAL SIGNAL
FINAL41–34Pregame Matrix 22–31
FavoriteSouth Carolina
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin9.0
Model Total53.2
SAT SEP 19 · 4:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL38–35Pregame Matrix 30–22
FavoriteSoutheastern Louisiana
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.3
Model Total52.1
SAT SEP 19 · 6:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL21–26Pregame Matrix 16–39
FavoriteAppalachian State
Model Win Prob94%
Model Margin22.9
Model Total54.3
SAT SEP 19 · 6:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL20–17Pregame Matrix 24–24
FavoriteEast Carolina
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.2
Model Total47.5
SAT SEP 19 · 6:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL10–16Pregame Matrix 26–35
FavoriteFlorida Atlantic
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.4
Model Total60.9
SAT SEP 19 · 6:30 PM ETFINAL SIGNAL
FINAL30–24Pregame Matrix 34–25
FavoriteMarshall
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.9
Model Total58.5
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL17–59Pregame Matrix 15–40
FavoriteSouth Florida
Model Win Prob96%
Model Margin25.6
Model Total54.8
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL SIGNAL
FINAL44–39Pregame Matrix 23–23
FavoriteFlorida
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.5
Model Total45.6
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL27–31Pregame Matrix 26–30
FavoriteJacksonville State
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.7
Model Total56.5
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL30–44Pregame Matrix 13–40
FavoriteUCF
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin27.4
Model Total52.4
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL0–59Pregame Matrix 9–44
FavoriteOklahoma State
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin35.1
Model Total53.1
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL20–27Pregame Matrix 31–20
FavoriteNevada
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.7
Model Total50.7
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL0–59Pregame Matrix 31–22
FavoriteNicholls
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.5
Model Total53.4
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL36–41Pregame Matrix 23–26
FavoriteSouth Alabama
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin3.0
Model Total48.2
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL17–27Pregame Matrix 15–37
FavoriteMissouri
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin22.0
Model Total51.6
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL SIGNAL
FINAL48–20Pregame Matrix 32–22
FavoriteUConn
Model Win Prob75%
Model Margin9.9
Model Total54.4
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL21–45Pregame Matrix 21–35
FavoriteMemphis
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.7
Model Total55.6
SAT SEP 19 · 7:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL28–21Pregame Matrix 26–20
FavoriteWestern Michigan
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.4
Model Total46.3
SAT SEP 19 · 7:15 PM ETFINAL
FINAL16–48Pregame Matrix 9–41
FavoriteWashington
Model Win Prob98%
Model Margin32.0
Model Total50.4
SAT SEP 19 · 7:15 PM ETFINAL
FINAL7–34Pregame Matrix 16–35
FavoriteNebraska
Model Win Prob90%
Model Margin18.9
Model Total51.4
SAT SEP 19 · 7:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL41–23Pregame Matrix 35–13
FavoriteBYU
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin21.6
Model Total48.5
SAT SEP 19 · 7:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL7–41Pregame Matrix 20–27
FavoriteNorthwestern
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin6.9
Model Total47.3
SAT SEP 19 · 7:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL24–32Pregame Matrix 28–23
FavoriteLSU
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.6
Model Total50.7
SAT SEP 19 · 7:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL10–27Pregame Matrix 13–41
FavoriteNotre Dame
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin28.7
Model Total53.9
SAT SEP 19 · 7:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL6–14Pregame Matrix 15–33
FavoriteOklahoma
Model Win Prob89%
Model Margin18.5
Model Total48.3
SAT SEP 19 · 7:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL35–26Pregame Matrix 27–24
FavoriteVirginia Tech
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.7
Model Total50.5
SAT SEP 19 · 7:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL38–27Pregame Matrix 21–28
FavoriteVirginia
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.7
Model Total48.5
SAT SEP 19 · 7:45 PM ETFINAL
FINAL9–42Pregame Matrix 15–43
FavoriteTennessee
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin28.5
Model Total57.6
SAT SEP 19 · 8:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL7–31Pregame Matrix 18–38
FavoriteTCU
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin20.2
Model Total55.2
SAT SEP 19 · 8:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL0–42Pregame Matrix 19–33
FavoriteTulsa
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.3
Model Total51.7
SAT SEP 19 · 8:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL14–21Pregame Matrix 24–36
FavoriteLouisiana
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.4
Model Total59.8
SAT SEP 19 · 8:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL6–30Pregame Matrix 13–44
FavoriteTexas
Model Win Prob98%
Model Margin30.4
Model Total57.2
SAT SEP 19 · 10:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL26–13Pregame Matrix 23–26
FavoriteSan Diego State
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.8
Model Total49.3
SAT SEP 19 · 10:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL24–38Pregame Matrix 19–34
FavoriteBoise State
Model Win Prob84%
Model Margin14.6
Model Total52.4
SAT SEP 19 · 10:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL31–10Pregame Matrix 36–15
FavoriteNorth Dakota State
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin21.1
Model Total51.4
SAT SEP 19 · 10:30 PM ETFINAL
FINAL17–42Pregame Matrix 9–40
FavoriteArizona
Model Win Prob98%
Model Margin30.9
Model Total48.3
SAT SEP 19 · 11:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL26–10Pregame Matrix 28–19
FavoriteFresno State
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.0
Model Total47.1
SAT SEP 19 · 11:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL17–52Pregame Matrix 25–25
FavoriteMontana
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.2
Model Total49.5
SAT SEP 19 · 11:00 PM ETFINAL
FINAL38–52Pregame Matrix 20–33
FavoriteUCLA
Model Win Prob81%
Model Margin13.1
Model Total53.0
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