Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: CJ Bailey gives the offense a stable core, but only five returning starters and a balanced nine-game league slate keep the projection near the market.
MPR #62Projected Wins #90ACC MPR #13Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating1.6National #62
Projected Wins5.66National #90
Schedule Strength#62National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense26.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+1.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR2.44 → 1.62-0.82 MPR
Rank#59 → #62-3 spots
Projected Wins6.47 → 5.66Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Stanford 28–31. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.8 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.23
Current Win-Total Gap-1.56
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 1.62 = OFF 30.80 − DEF 25.30 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual -2.90 + season adjustment -0.48. Sigma 2.21.
