Matrix Power Rating-0.8National #70
Projected Wins4.28National #114
Schedule Strength#25National SOS rank
Projected Offense20.1Points per game
Projected Defense29.5Points allowed
Point Differential-9.4Projected per game
Current Context
Certified UpdateWhat Changed
The Week 0 result cleared the model-update gate. The adjustment is reflected in the current MPR, national rank and projected-wins figures above.
Week 0 ResultW 37–27
MPR-1.8 → -0.8
Projected Wins3.64 → 4.28
Model update note
Offensive/QB positive. Guardrail: Late-game swing cap.
External Headlines
Latest Stanford news.
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (3 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total3.5
Effective Market3.50
Adjusted Edge+0.14
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
OCT 17EElonHome · Nonconference80%Win %31–18Baseline score+12.8Margin49.0TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.