Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Micah Alejado gives Hawai'i the league's best quarterback ceiling; trench turnover and extensive travel prevent a larger projection.
MPR #88Projected Wins #105Mountain West MPR #5Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-5.7National #88
Projected Wins4.78National #105
Schedule Strength#110National SOS rank
Projected Offense31.5Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense21.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+10.1Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-7.26 → -5.70+1.56 MPR
Rank#97 → #88+9 spots
Projected Wins4.44 → 4.78Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Northern Illinois 56–21. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.6 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Hawaii news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.24
Current Win-Total Gap-2.46
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -5.70 = OFF 25.50 − DEF 30.00 + ST 0.60 + legacy residual 0.20 + season adjustment -2.00. Sigma 2.69.
