Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Carson Conklin and a large transfer class give the FBS newcomer upside, but only four returning starters, extreme travel and championship ineligibility increase uncertainty.
MPR #137Projected Wins #136MAC MPR #13Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-28.3National #137
Projected Wins1.64National #136
Schedule Strength#134National SOS rank
Projected Offense17.2Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense33.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-16.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-27.65 → -28.30-0.65 MPR
Rank#137 → #137+0 spots
Projected Wins2.10 → 1.64Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Ball State 17–34. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.7 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Sacramento State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
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The gold bar is the current mode (1 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.62
Current Win-Total Gap-2.98
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -28.30 = OFF 14.45 − DEF 38.10 + ST 0.10 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment -4.85. Sigma 3.51.
