Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Five returning defensive starters should keep the Bobcats competitive while the offense and new internal coaching structure settle into place.
MPR #111Projected Wins #27MAC MPR #4Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-11.2National #111
Projected Wins8.35National #27
Schedule Strength#135National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense18.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+3.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-10.71 → -11.20-0.49 MPR
Rank#109 → #111-2 spots
Projected Wins8.14 → 8.35Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Eastern Michigan 24–20. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Ohio news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.67
Current Win-Total Gap+1.68
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -11.20 = OFF 13.25 − DEF 26.00 + ST -0.70 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment 2.15. Sigma 3.48.
