Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Bishop Davenport provides experience and the schedule is manageable, while limited top-end defensive continuity prevents a larger projection.
MPR #112Projected Wins #68Sun Belt MPR #10Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-11.6National #112
Projected Wins6.47National #68
Schedule Strength#117National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense28.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-0.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-11.27 → -11.58-0.31 MPR
Rank#113 → #112+1 spots
Projected Wins6.52 → 6.47Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Marshall 13–20. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest South Alabama news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.66
Current Win-Total Gap+0.81
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -11.58 = OFF 22.65 − DEF 35.05 + ST -0.60 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment 1.32. Sigma 2.57.
