Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Seven offensive starters, strong snapback and an experienced skill group support the West contender profile; first-year starting quarterback risk remains.
MPR #108Projected Wins #72Sun Belt MPR #8Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-10.1National #108
Projected Wins6.24National #72
Schedule Strength#122National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense26.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+3.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-9.50 → -10.09-0.60 MPR
Rank#104 → #108-4 spots
Projected Wins6.14 → 6.24Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Georgia State 38–32. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.6 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Arkansas State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.32
Current Win-Total Gap-0.08
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -10.09 = OFF 23.90 − DEF 31.95 + ST 0.15 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment -2.29. Sigma 2.72.
