Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Five offensive starters and a rebuilt quarterback room can improve the scoring floor, but low snapback and only two defensive starters keep the range wide.
MPR #133Projected Wins #115MAC MPR #11Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-23.9National #133
Projected Wins4.23National #115
Schedule Strength#108National SOS rank
Projected Offense19.2Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-8.1Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-25.08 → -23.95+1.13 MPR
Rank#134 → #133+1 spots
Projected Wins3.76 → 4.23Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Sacramento State 34–17. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.57
Current Win-Total Gap+0.65
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -23.95 = OFF 12.35 − DEF 36.65 + ST -0.70 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment 0.95. Sigma 3.07.
