Matrix Power Rating-5.6National #91
Projected Wins8.45National #17
Schedule Strength#138National SOS rank
Projected Offense32.7Points per game
Projected Defense23.2Points allowed
Point Differential+9.5Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-5.6 → -5.6
Projected Wins8.45 → 8.45
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (9 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total8.5
Effective Market8.33
Adjusted Edge+0.12
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5JMJames MadisonAway · Nonconference33%Win %24–31Baseline score-6.8Margin54.9TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 12GGardner-WebbHome · Nonconference — FCS80%Win %34–21Baseline score+12.8Margin55.0TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 19BSBall StateHome · Nonconference93%Win %38–16Baseline score+21.8Margin53.4TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 24CCCoastal CarolinaAway · Nonconference65%Win %31–26Baseline score+6.2Margin57.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 8SHSam HoustonHome · Conference USA94%Win %40–17Baseline score+23.3Margin56.4TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 21KSKennesaw StateAway · Conference USA52%Win %28–27Baseline score+0.8Margin54.7TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 31FIFlorida InternationalHome · Conference USA76%Win %34–24Baseline score+10.5Margin57.6TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 7NMNew Mexico StateAway · Conference USA69%Win %31–23Baseline score+7.3Margin54.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14MTMiddle TennesseeHome · Conference USA94%Win %39–17Baseline score+22.8Margin56.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 21WKWestern KentuckyHome · Conference USA53%Win %29–28Baseline score+1.3Margin57.6TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 28MSMissouri StateAway · Conference USA76%Win %33–22Baseline score+10.4Margin54.9TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.