Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The conference's top portal class adds upside, but only three starters return and both sides of the ball begin from the league's lowest rating tier.
MPR #134Projected Wins #132Conference USA MPR #10Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-24.1National #134
Projected Wins2.36National #132
Schedule Strength#105National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense32.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-10.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-23.94 → -24.09-0.15 MPR
Rank#133 → #134-1 spots
Projected Wins2.33 → 2.36Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to New Mexico State 24–30. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
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The gold bar is the current mode (2 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.25
Current Win-Total Gap-0.89
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -24.09 = OFF 15.30 − DEF 39.20 + ST -0.40 + legacy residual -0.20 + season adjustment 0.41. Sigma 2.80.
