Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Jackson Arnold and the league's top portal class give UNLV the highest offensive ceiling; defensive turnover and line play are the primary risks.
MPR #59Projected Wins #39Mountain West MPR #2Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating2.0National #59
Projected Wins7.90National #39
Schedule Strength#92National SOS rank
Projected Offense34.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense19.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+14.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR2.05 → 2.02-0.03 MPR
Rank#60 → #59+1 spots
Projected Wins7.91 → 7.90Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest UNLV news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.90
Current Win-Total Gap+0.00
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 2.02 = OFF 30.50 − DEF 29.25 + ST -0.00 + legacy residual -2.05 + season adjustment 2.82. Sigma 2.68.
