Matrix Power Rating1.7National #62
Projected Wins7.68National #36
Schedule Strength#92National SOS rank
Projected Offense33.4Points per game
Projected Defense22.6Points allowed
Point Differential+10.8Projected per game
Current Context
Certified UpdateWhat Changed
The Week 0 result cleared the model-update gate. The adjustment is reflected in the current MPR, national rank and projected-wins figures above.
Week 0 ResultL 21–27
MPR3.7 → 1.7
Projected Wins8.84 → 7.68
Model update note
Favorite lost; situational offense concern. Guardrail: Do not overreact to one competitive game.
External Headlines
Latest UNLV news.
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (9 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total7.5
Effective Market7.90
Adjusted Edge+0.94
SignalStrong
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 12NTNorth TexasAway · Nonconference80%Win %37–24Baseline score+13.2Margin60.7TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 10NDNorth Dakota StateHome · Mountain West66%Win %31–25Baseline score+6.3Margin55.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 31NINorthern IllinoisHome · Mountain West95%Win %39–14Baseline score+25.3Margin52.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 21SJSan Jose StateAway · Mountain West87%Win %37–20Baseline score+17.1Margin56.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.