Matrix Power Rating-11.8National #111
Projected Wins4.73National #107
Schedule Strength#91National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.5Points per game
Projected Defense27.3Points allowed
Point Differential-4.9Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-11.8 → -11.8
Projected Wins4.73 → 4.73
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (5 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total4.5
Effective Market4.23
Adjusted Edge+0.50
SignalLean
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5WKWestern KentuckyHome · Nonconference38%Win %24–28Baseline score-4.4Margin51.9TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 12MSMontana StateHome · Nonconference — FCS35%Win %22–27Baseline score-5.6Margin49.3TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 19MTMiddle TennesseeAway · Nonconference77%Win %31–20Baseline score+11.1Margin50.3TotalLowFBSOpponent
SEP 26AFAir ForceHome · Mountain West30%Win %21–29Baseline score-7.7Margin50.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 17NDNorth Dakota StateAway · Mountain West18%Win %17–31Baseline score-13.8Margin48.3TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 24SJSan Jose StateHome · Mountain West65%Win %28–22Baseline score+5.6Margin49.6TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 6NMNew MexicoHome · Mountain West26%Win %20–29Baseline score-9.5Margin49.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14NINorthern IllinoisAway · Mountain West60%Win %25–21Baseline score+3.9Margin45.7TotalLowFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.