Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: A strong portal class raises the talent floor, while an unresolved quarterback competition and only five returning starters keep volatility elevated.
MPR #109Projected Wins #110Mountain West MPR #7Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-10.2National #109
Projected Wins4.56National #110
Schedule Strength#87National SOS rank
Projected Offense20.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense29.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-9.1Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-10.93 → -10.17+0.75 MPR
Rank#112 → #109+3 spots
Projected Wins4.11 → 4.56Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat San Jose State 28–13. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.8 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Nevada news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.23
Current Win-Total Gap+0.33
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -10.17 = OFF 18.75 − DEF 29.10 + ST 0.65 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -0.62. Sigma 3.77.
