Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Luke Weaver improves the quarterback outlook, but only two starters return and the Spartans must integrate 21 transfers across a 13-game schedule.
MPR #119Projected Wins #93Mountain West MPR #8Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-13.8National #119
Projected Wins5.43National #93
Schedule Strength#84National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense30.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-9.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-13.07 → -13.84-0.78 MPR
Rank#117 → #119-2 spots
Projected Wins5.84 → 5.43Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Nevada 13–28. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.8 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest San Jose State news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.97
Current Win-Total Gap+1.46
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -13.84 = OFF 19.30 − DEF 33.10 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment 0.36. Sigma 3.61.
