Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Elite defensive baseline, but replacing Ty Simpson with an unsettled quarterback and only five returning starters raises downside risk.
MPR #9Projected Wins #17SEC MPR #4Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating20.9National #9
Projected Wins8.99National #17
Schedule Strength#5National SOS rank
Projected Offense30.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense16.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+14.1Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR20.61 → 20.93+0.32 MPR
Rank#10 → #9+1 spots
Projected Wins8.59 → 8.99Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Texas A&M 31–20. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (9 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.58
Current Win-Total Gap+0.41
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 20.93 = OFF 32.75 − DEF 12.50 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment 1.03. Sigma 2.84.
