Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Arch Manning, strong continuity and a high-quality portal class create a championship-level median with manageable fragility.
MPR #8Projected Wins #24SEC MPR #3Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating23.3National #8
Projected Wins8.45National #24
Schedule Strength#1National SOS rank
Projected Offense31.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense21.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+9.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR23.22 → 23.29+0.07 MPR
Rank#7 → #8-1 spots
Projected Wins8.14 → 8.45Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Ole Miss 34–27. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (9 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total9.5
Preseason Effective Market9.27
Current Win-Total Gap-0.82
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 23.29 = OFF 37.70 − DEF 13.25 + ST 0.40 + legacy residual 0.50 + season adjustment -2.06. Sigma 1.58.
