Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Brian Hartline and the league's top-rated transfer class add talent, but only three starters return and the quarterback competition keeps volatility high.
MPR #81Projected Wins #34American MPR #5Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-2.6National #81
Projected Wins8.11National #34
Schedule Strength#114National SOS rank
Projected Offense30.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+5.1Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-2.72 → -2.58+0.14 MPR
Rank#81 → #81+0 spots
Projected Wins8.04 → 8.11Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power +0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.27
Current Win-Total Gap-0.16
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -2.58 = OFF 26.65 − DEF 28.95 + ST 0.05 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -0.48. Sigma 3.89.
