2026 MATRIXWEEK 1138 FBS TEAMS91 GAMESCOLLEGE FOOTBALL DECODEDMODEL + MARKET + CONTEXT
GameDay Matrix
A
American · Black Knights · 0-0

Army

Your complete Army season intelligence view.

Cale Hellums and eight returning offensive starters preserve the option system's floor, but limited snapback and no experienced backup keep injury sensitivity elevated.

MPR #81Projected Wins #49American MPR #6Week 1 Ready
Matrix Power Rating-2.5National #81
Projected Wins7.14National #49
Schedule Strength#80National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.7Points per game
Projected Defense24.8Points allowed
Point Differential+3.9Projected per game
Current Context

What Changed

Reviewed State

No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.

Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-2.5 → -2.5
Projected Wins7.14 → 7.14
Model update note

No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.

External Headlines

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Outcome Range

Season Distribution

The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.

Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the baseline mode (7 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison Layer

Market context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.

Posted Total7.5
Effective Market7.79
Adjusted Edge-0.65
SignalReview
Game by Game

2026 Schedule Matrix

Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.

DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5BryantHome · Nonconference88%Win %35–17Baseline score+17.8Margin52.0TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 12South FloridaHome · American56%Win %29–26Baseline score+2.5Margin55.4TotalLowFBSOpponent
SEP 25TempleAway · American61%Win %30–26Baseline score+4.2Margin56.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 3Louisiana TechAway · Nonconference57%Win %28–25Baseline score+3.2Margin52.6TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 10TulaneHome · American62%Win %28–23Baseline score+4.6Margin51.4TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 17Florida AtlanticHome · American67%Win %32–26Baseline score+6.4Margin58.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 23TulsaAway · American55%Win %28–26Baseline score+2.0Margin53.9TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 31MemphisAway · American40%Win %26–30Baseline score-3.9Margin55.7TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 7Air ForceHome · Nonconference56%Win %28–25Baseline score+2.7Margin52.7TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 21East CarolinaHome · American56%Win %27–24Baseline score+2.4Margin51.0TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 28RiceAway · American72%Win %30–21Baseline score+8.8Margin50.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
DEC 12NavyNeutral · Nonconference — East Rutherford41%Win %25–28Baseline score-3.4Margin53.4TotalLowFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.
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