Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Portal volume improves depth, but only six starters return and Ryan Browne's prior starting results create significant quarterback risk.
MPR #76Projected Wins #116Big Ten MPR #18Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-1.4National #76
Projected Wins4.14National #116
Schedule Strength#14National SOS rank
Projected Offense18.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense31.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-13.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-1.25 → -1.39-0.15 MPR
Rank#77 → #76+1 spots
Projected Wins4.18 → 4.14Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.42
Current Win-Total Gap+0.72
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -1.39 = OFF 24.73 − DEF 28.42 + ST 0.68 + legacy residual 0.05 + season adjustment 1.56. Sigma 2.69.
