Beat Northern Illinois 56–21. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.6 points; unit inputs are retained.
Open team intelligence →Week 8 accountability
Grade the forecast that existed before kickoff.
35–21 winner picks across all 56 finals. Recorded spread comparisons finished 22–34 and totals 28–28. Original predictions and prices remain preserved.
What Matters NowWeek 8 complete. Week 9 forecasts published.
Full-slate margin MAE12.18 pointsAll 56 Week 8 games
Full-slate total MAE15.79 pointsFrozen pregame projections
Current forecasts26 spread picks25 total picks
Current Desk · Week 9
The Wire.
The latest closeout, model update and current-week review use the same release data.
56 finals. Winner picks finish 35–21.
Margin error averaged 12.18 points. Published market comparisons finished 22–34 on spreads and 28–28 on totals.
Week 9 forecasts56 games. The new week starts Tuesday.
Scores, winners, spreads and totals use the October 26 model update. Each matchup keeps its dated DraftKings comparison and relevant player or weather context.
Current ratingsEvery Week 8 final shapes the new outlook.
All 138 teams reviewed. Records, projected wins and conference title chances include the complete Week 8 slate.
Matchup contextQuarterback roles and game-window weather.
Every active matchup screened. Current reports remain distinct from prior participation, and forecasts use actual venues and game windows.
Matrix UnhingedOriginal tickets and fresh dated quotes.
Week 8 combinations and their losses are archived. Week 9 prices and illustrative returns retain their observation date.
Weekly learningThe market outperformed our model this week.
Fixed challengers and later private shortlists are evaluated separately. No model change is promoted from a single week.
No Matrix Wire items match those filters.
Week 8 Rating Response
Movement from the full season evidence.
Changes from the previous weekly rating to the new season-strength fit. The update uses all usable FBS results through Week 7.
Beat Missouri State 61–38. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.6 points; unit inputs are retained.
Open team intelligence →Beat California 59–20. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
Open team intelligence →Week 8 Unhinged results.
The original tickets, prices, pregame rationale and grades remain preserved.
Open ticket archive →Week 3 stays available.
The earlier performance report is retained as a dated archive.
Open historical review →Strength and season wins.
See how current ratings run through the remaining schedule.
Open explainer →